Regular Season - 11 · 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Skalica vs AS Trencin Super Liga prediction

Skalica

Our model says: Skalica 2–1 AS Trencin

The model makes it 42% Skalica, 29% draw, 29% AS Trencin — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Skalica 1.63, AS Trencin 1.16.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published

Key facts

  • Skalica are 8th on 8 points from 9 games; AS Trencin are 11th on 5 points from 8 games — Super Liga.
  • Skalica have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Podbrezová.
  • AS Trencin are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Žilina.
  • Last 6 meetings: AS Trencin 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Skalica 4–1 AS Trencin.

Live win probability

From kick-off
Skalica42%2.38
Draw29%3.45
AS Trencin29%3.45

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Skalica vs AS Trencin

56%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Skalica win Draw AS Trencin win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 0–17%

Scores read Skalica first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 42%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Skalica at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Skalica vs AS Trencin

Skalica

  • L0-1Podbrezová20 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Dukla Banská Bystrica12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Komárno5 September 2026
  • L1-6Dunajska Streda30 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Zemplín Michalovce22 August 2026

AS Trencin

  • L1-2away to Žilina19 September 2026
  • L1-4Dunajska Streda12 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Zemplín Michalovce5 September 2026
  • W2-1Ružomberok29 August 2026
  • L0-4Spartak Trnava23 August 2026

What these results say

  • Skalica did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Skalica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AS Trencin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for AS Trencin had three goals or more.
  • AS Trencin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Skalica92251119-88
11AS Trencin81251020-105

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Skalica vs AS Trencin

  • 19 April 2026Skalica 4–1 AS TrencinSuper Liga
  • 15 March 2026AS Trencin 2–1 SkalicaSuper Liga
  • 28 February 2026Skalica 0–1 AS TrencinSuper Liga
  • 18 October 2025AS Trencin 1–1 SkalicaSuper Liga
  • 17 May 2025AS Trencin 2–0 SkalicaSuper Liga
  • 15 March 2025Skalica 1–0 AS TrencinSuper Liga

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Skalica carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.15 for AS Trencin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Skalica and 1.16 for AS Trencin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Skalica rate 0.48 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AS Trencin rate 0.51 and 2.09.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Skalica the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Skalica against 1.16 for AS Trencin. Skalica's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.09 for AS Trencin.

Season stats

SkalicaAS Trencin
9Matches8
2W 2D 5LRecord1W 2D 5L
11 1.2 a gameGoals scored10 1.3 a game
19 2.1 a gameGoals conceded20 2.5 a game
1 of 9Clean sheets0 of 8
3 of 9Failed to score1 of 8
1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 3
20 2.2 a gameYellow cards12 1.5 a game
2Red cards1

Skalica at home · AS Trencin away

4Played4
1W 0D 3LRecord0W 1D 3L
5–12Goals for – against6–10
0 of 4Clean sheets0 of 4

League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Super Liga matches this season: Skalica 9, AS Trencin 8.

Skalica scored 213322
AS Trencin conceded 334243
AS Trencin scored 200333
Skalica conceded 163124

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Skalica

  • vs Spartak Trnava24 Oct · Super Ligawin 26%
  • at Ružomberok1 Nov · Super Ligawin 31%
  • vs Žilina7 Nov · Super Ligawin 30%
  • at FK Košice21 Nov · Super Ligawin 24%

AS Trencin

  • at Komárno25 Oct · Super Ligawin 28%
  • vs Slovan Bratislava28 Oct · Super Ligawin 23%
  • vs FK Košice31 Oct · Super Ligawin 35%
  • at Slovan Bratislava7 Nov · Super Ligawin 14%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.