Switzerland
vs
North Macedonia
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Switzerland 2–0 North Macedonia
The model makes it 63% Switzerland, 24% draw, 13% North Macedonia — fair odds of 1.59, 4.17 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Switzerland 2.26, North Macedonia 0.49.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Switzerland are top on 9 points from 3 games; North Macedonia are bottom on 0 points from 3 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
- Switzerland are unbeaten in their last 3 (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Slovenia.
- North Macedonia have not won in their last 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Scotland.
More Nations League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Switzerland vs North Macedonia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Switzerland at 63% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Switzerland vs North Macedonia
Switzerland
- W2-1Slovenia3 October 2026
- W3-0away to Scotland29 September 2026
- W3-0away to North Macedonia26 September 2026
North Macedonia
- L0-2Scotland3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Slovenia29 September 2026
- L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Switzerland vs North Macedonia
- 26 September 2026North Macedonia 0–3 SwitzerlandUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Switzerland and North Macedonia
Switzerland
- Z. Amdouni3 goals1 assist
North Macedonia
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Switzerland carry a model rating of 7.26 against 6.57 for North Macedonia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.26 goals for Switzerland and 0.49 for North Macedonia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Switzerland rate 1.55 in attack and 0.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; North Macedonia rate 0.58 and 1.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,062 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Switzerland the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Switzerland against 0.49 for North Macedonia. Switzerland's attack/defence rating is 1.55/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.08 for North Macedonia.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Switzerland
- at Slovenia13 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 46%
- vs Scotland16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 55%
North Macedonia
- at Scotland13 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 24%
- vs Slovenia16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.