Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
CSKA Sofia
First League prediction
The model makes it 35% Lokomotiv Sofia, 25% draw, 40% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.44, CSKA Sofia 1.55.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Lokomotiv Sofia
- L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026
- L1-3CSKA 19488 August 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia31 July 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv21 July 2026
CSKA Sofia
- W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia9 August 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse2 August 2026
- W3-2Botev Plovdiv27 July 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
- 8 March 2026CSKA Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 13 December 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Lokomotiv SofiaCup
- 27 September 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 2 April 2025CSKA Sofia 1–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 16 September 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 0–3 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 30 March 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
The two sides
Lokomotiv Sofia carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.57 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Lokomotiv Sofia D-L-D-L-L; CSKA Sofia D-W-W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.55 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.77 in attack and 2.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.50 and 0.99.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 456 correct results out of 941 settled predictions (48%), with 88 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Lokomotiv Sofia against 1.55 for CSKA Sofia. Lokomotiv Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.77/2.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/0.99 for CSKA Sofia.