Tondela
vs
Alverca
Taça de Portugal prediction
Our model says: Tondela 1–0 Alverca
The model makes it 37% Tondela, 30% draw, 33% Alverca — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tondela 1.36, Alverca 1.24.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Tondela are 9th in Segunda Liga on 9 points from 6 games; Alverca are 10th in Primeira Liga on 8 points from 7 games.
- Tondela have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-0 win away to Portimonense.
- Alverca have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rio Ave.
- Last 4 meetings: Alverca 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Tondela 1–1 Alverca.
All Taça de Portugal predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Tondela vs Alverca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tondela at 37% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tondela vs Alverca
Tondela
- W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026
- W3-0FC Porto B5 September 2026
- L0-2away to União de Leiria28 August 2026
- L0-2Academica21 August 2026
- L0-1away to Leixoes16 August 2026
Alverca
- W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Nacional12 September 2026
- L1-2SC Braga5 September 2026
- D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Sporting CP22 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tondela had two goals or fewer.
- Alverca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alverca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Alverca.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Tondela and Alverca in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tondela | Segunda Liga | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 10 | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Segunda Liga · Primeira Liga
Head-to-head: Tondela vs Alverca
- 13 February 2026Tondela 1–1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 12 September 2025Alverca 1–0 TondelaPrimeira Liga
- 11 May 2025Tondela 1–2 AlvercaSegunda Liga
- 12 January 2025Alverca 1–1 TondelaSegunda Liga
Leading scorers: Tondela and Alverca
Tondela
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Alverca
- D. Camara3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tondela carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.69 for Alverca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Tondela and 1.24 for Alverca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tondela rate 0.74 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alverca rate 0.82 and 1.13.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tondela the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Tondela against 1.24 for Alverca. Tondela's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.13 for Alverca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tondela at home · Alverca away
League matches only, this season — Tondela in the Segunda Liga, Alverca in the Primeira Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Tondela 6 in the Segunda Liga, Alverca 7 in the Primeira Liga.
Tondela score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Alverca have let in 0 there.
Alverca score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Tondela have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Tondela
- at AVS25 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 30%
- vs Felgueiras 193230 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 48%
- at Sporting CP B8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 35%
- vs Farense15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 45%
- at Chaves28 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 40%
Alverca
- vs Arouca24 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 34%
- at Benfica2 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 15%
- vs Casa Pia7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 47%
- at Academico Viseu28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 28%
- vs Moreirense6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.