Leeds
vs
Brentford
Premier League prediction
The model makes it 55% Leeds, 20% draw, 25% Brentford — fair odds of 1.82, 5.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Leeds 2.37, Brentford 1.60.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Leeds vs Brentford
- 21 March 2026Leeds 0–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 14 December 2025Brentford 1–1 LeedsPremier League
- 22 January 2023Leeds 0–0 BrentfordPremier League
- 3 September 2022Brentford 5–2 LeedsPremier League
- 22 May 2022Brentford 1–2 LeedsPremier League
- 5 December 2021Leeds 2–2 BrentfordPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Leeds carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.84 for Brentford. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.37 goals for Leeds and 1.60 for Brentford. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leeds rate 1.16 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Brentford rate 1.06 and 1.08.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leeds the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Leeds against 1.6 for Brentford. Leeds's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.08 for Brentford.