St Mirren
vs
Motherwell
Premiership prediction
The model makes it 62% St Mirren, 23% draw, 15% Motherwell — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: St Mirren 1.81, Motherwell 0.76.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
St Mirren
- W1-0St Johnstone8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Falkirk1 August 2026
Motherwell
- D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | St Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
St Mirren
- K. Phillips3 goals
Motherwell
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
St Mirren carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.26 for Motherwell. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): St Mirren W-W; Motherwell W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.81 goals for St Mirren and 0.76 for Motherwell. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St Mirren rate 0.55 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Motherwell rate 0.53 and 1.74.
That points to 47% for over two and a half goals and 45% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Mirren the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.81 expected goals for St Mirren against 0.76 for Motherwell. St Mirren's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.74 for Motherwell.