St Mirren vs Motherwell Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Mirren 3-3 Motherwell.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% St Mirren, 29% draw, 25% Motherwell — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Mirren at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Mirren vs Motherwell
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. ChapmanG
- 47C. RamsayD
- 13A. GogicD
- 53H. FieldsonD
- 3D. JohnD
- 8R. CarrM
- 48P. NsioM
- 10S. RamosM
- 23C. R. MochrieM
- 19I. KabiaM
- 25N. AgrafiotisF
- 31R. MullenG
- 2J. RichardsonD
- 5R. KingD
- 6L. JacksonD
- 30F. TaylorM
- 37C. McEvoyM
- 20J. YoungF
- 9E. SuleF
- 16L. ThomasM
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowD
- 4J. Knight-LebelD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 45E. LongeloD
- 71J. HodgeM
- 8L. FadingerM
- 18T. MaswanhiseM
- 11A. LowryM
- 19I. SaidM
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 21Matty ConnellyG
- 20D. WilliamsD
- 2S. O'DonnellD
- 25O. WhyteM
- 13J. KangaM
- 24L. RossM
- 77W. VogtF
- 15E. BjorgolfssonF
- 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
Form going into St Mirren vs Motherwell
St Mirren
- W1-0St Johnstone8 August 2026
- W2-0away to Falkirk1 August 2026
Motherwell
- L1-4away to SC Freiburg27 August 2026
- L1-3SC Freiburg20 August 2026
- W2-0HJK Helsinki13 August 2026
- D0-0Falkirk9 August 2026
- D1-1away to HJK Helsinki6 August 2026
What these results say
- Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | St Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Mirren vs Motherwell
- 30 August 2026St Mirren 3–3 MotherwellPremiership
- 21 February 2026St Mirren 0–5 MotherwellPremiership
- 3 January 2026Motherwell 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 1 November 2025Motherwell 1–4 St MirrenLeague Cup
- 9 August 2025St Mirren 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 15 March 2025Motherwell 2–2 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers: St Mirren and Motherwell
St Mirren
- K. Phillips3 goals
- Samu1 goal2 assists
Motherwell
- A. Lowry2 goals1 assist
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goal2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.