Kifisia
vs
Kalamata
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Kifisia 2–1 Kalamata
The model makes it 45% Kifisia, 25% draw, 30% Kalamata — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kifisia 1.82, Kalamata 1.40.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Kifisia's rating is built from 46 Greek Super League matches and Kalamata's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 541 matches.
Key facts
- Kifisia are 7th on 14 points from 10 games; Kalamata are 8th on 12 points from 10 games — Super League 1.
- Kifisia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Volos NFC.
- Kalamata are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Asteras Tripolis.
- Last 6 meetings: Kifisia 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2025, ended Kalamata 0–1 Kifisia.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kifisia vs Kalamata
Has the model earned this number?
Kifisia at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kifisia vs Kalamata
Kifisia
Super League 1
- W3-1away to Volos NFC7 November 2026
- L2-3Olympiakos Piraeus31 October 2026
- W3-2away to Iraklis 190824 October 2026
- L1-2Aris Thessalonikis18 October 2026
- W2-0Panetolikos11 October 2026
Kalamata
Super League 1
- D1-1away to Asteras Tripolis8 November 2026
- D1-1Iraklis 19082 November 2026
- L0-5away to Olympiakos Piraeus25 October 2026
- W4-3OFI18 October 2026
- W3-1away to PAOK12 October 2026
What these results say
- Kifisia scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kifisia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kifisia had three goals or more.
- Kalamata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kalamata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Kalamata.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kifisia | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Kalamata | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kifisia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
Kalamata
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Kifisia vs Kalamata
- 13 April 2025Kalamata 0–1 KifisiaSuper League 2
- 8 March 2025Kifisia 0–0 KalamataSuper League 2
- 19 January 2025Kifisia 1–0 KalamataSuper League 2
- 4 November 2024Kalamata 1–1 KifisiaSuper League 2
- 11 June 2023Kifisia 1–1 KalamataSuper League 2
- 10 March 2023Kalamata 1–2 KifisiaSuper League 2
Leading scorers: Kifisia and Kalamata
Kifisia
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Pombo42
- Á. Sagal41
Kalamata
GoalsAssists
- D. Kurminowski50
- J. Bolívar30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kifisia the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Kifisia against 1.40 for Kalamata. Kifisia's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.6 for Kalamata.
How the model reaches 45% for Kifisia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kifisia to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Kifisia's ratings add 1 point and Kalamata's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level43%+2
- Kifisia's ratings44%+1
- Kalamata's ratings45%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kifisia at home · Kalamata away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
KifisiaKalamata
Kifisia are 7th after 10 Super League 1 matches (between 6th and 11th so far); Kalamata are 8th after 10 (between 5th and 12th). Points deductions (Volos NFC −3) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Kifisia 10, Kalamata 10.
Kifisia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Kalamata have let in 5 there.
Kalamata score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Kifisia have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kifisia
- at Asteras Tripolis6 Dec · Super League 1win 36%
- vs OFI14 Dec · Super League 1win 40%
- vs Atromitos19 Dec · Super League 1win 40%
- at Panetolikos10 Jan · Super League 1win 41%
Kalamata
- vs Levadiakos6 Dec · Super League 1win 43%
- vs Panetolikos12 Dec · Super League 1win 53%
- at OFI20 Dec · Super League 1win 28%
- vs Olympiakos Piraeus9 Jan · Super League 1win 18%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.