HNK Rijeka
vs
HNK Hajduk Split
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Rijeka 1–0 HNK Hajduk Split
The model makes it 37% HNK Rijeka, 31% draw, 32% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: HNK Rijeka 1.24, HNK Hajduk Split 1.09.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are HNK Rijeka wins, grey are draws, red are HNK Hajduk Split wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Rijeka at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Rijeka
- D1-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12 September 2026
- W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
- D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
- W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin16 August 2026
HNK Hajduk Split
- W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
- W2-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb31 August 2026
- W4-0NK Osijek23 August 2026
- W2-1away to HNK Gorica16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split
- 26 April 2026HNK Rijeka 0–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 4 March 2026HNK Rijeka 3–2 HNK Hajduk SplitCup
- 22 February 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 22 November 2025HNK Rijeka 5–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 31 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–2 HNK RijekaHNL
- 18 May 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Rijeka
- D. Adu-Adjei3 goals1 assists
- T. Fruk2 goals3 assists
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HNK Rijeka carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.5 for HNK Hajduk Split. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for HNK Rijeka and 1.09 for HNK Hajduk Split. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Rijeka rate 0.60 in attack and 1.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.62 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour HNK Hajduk Split, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HNK Rijeka a 3.7% chance of the title and HNK Hajduk Split 29.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Rijeka the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for HNK Rijeka against 1.09 for HNK Hajduk Split. HNK Rijeka's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.27 for HNK Hajduk Split.