GIL Vicente
vs
Vitória SC
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: GIL Vicente 1–0 Vitória SC
The model makes it 44% GIL Vicente, 31% draw, 25% Vitória SC — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: GIL Vicente 1.26, Vitória SC 0.80.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Edge to GIL Vicente: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. GIL Vicente's rating is built from 41 Primeira Liga matches and Vitória SC's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 687 matches.
Key facts
- GIL Vicente are 7th on 11 points from 7 games; Vitória SC are 15th on 5 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- GIL Vicente have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Moreirense.
- Vitória SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Benfica.
- Last 6 meetings: Vitória SC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended GIL Vicente 0–1 Vitória SC.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GIL Vicente at 44% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC
GIL Vicente
- W1-0away to Moreirense9 October 2026
- D1-1Maritimo19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benfica13 September 2026
- L0-1Academico Viseu6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Famalicao30 August 2026
Vitória SC
- L0-2away to Benfica11 October 2026
- D1-1Moreirense20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu12 September 2026
- D0-0Casa Pia6 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga31 August 2026
What these results say
- GIL Vicente failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for GIL Vicente had two goals or fewer.
- Vitória SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vitória SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vitória SC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 11 |
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: GIL Vicente vs Vitória SC
- 18 April 2026GIL Vicente 0–1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 8 December 2025Vitória SC 0–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 11 April 2025GIL Vicente 0–1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 2 December 2024Vitória SC 4–0 GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
- 8 February 2024Vitória SC 3–1 GIL VicenteTaça de Portugal
- 28 January 2024GIL Vicente 1–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: GIL Vicente and Vitória SC
GIL Vicente
GoalsAssists
- Héctor Hernández31
Vitória SC
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
GIL Vicente carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.64 for Vitória SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for GIL Vicente and 0.80 for Vitória SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
GIL Vicente rate 0.78 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vitória SC rate 0.68 and 1.07.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GIL Vicente the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for GIL Vicente against 0.80 for Vitória SC. GIL Vicente's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.07 for Vitória SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
GIL Vicente at home · Vitória SC away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: GIL Vicente 7, Vitória SC 8.
Vitória SC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); GIL Vicente have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
GIL Vicente
- at Santa Clara8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 26%
- vs Estoril29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 47%
- at Estrela6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 35%
Vitória SC
- vs FC Porto8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 13%
- vs Estrela28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 37%
- at Estoril6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 31%
- vs Alverca13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.