Bodrum FK
vs
Bandırmaspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Bodrum FK 1–0 Bandırmaspor
The model makes it 37% Bodrum FK, 34% draw, 29% Bandırmaspor — fair odds of 2.70, 2.94 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bodrum FK 0.99, Bandırmaspor 0.77.
Both teams to score: 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 26%, under 2.5: 74%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Bodrum FK are 14th on 8 points from 8 games; Bandırmaspor are 11th on 10 points from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Bodrum FK have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Pendikspor.
- Bandırmaspor have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Ümraniyespor.
- Last 6 meetings: Bodrum FK 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Bodrum FK 0–0 Bandırmaspor.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bodrum FK at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor
Bodrum FK
- D1-1away to Pendikspor20 September 2026
- W4-0Batman Petrolspor12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Mardin 19697 September 2026
- D0-0Esenler Erokspor3 September 2026
- D0-0away to Manisa F.K.30 August 2026
Bandırmaspor
- L0-1Ümraniyespor18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sarıyer11 September 2026
- W6-0Boluspor5 September 2026
- L0-1Antalyaspor1 September 2026
- D1-1away to Pendikspor28 August 2026
What these results say
- Bodrum FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bodrum FK had two goals or fewer.
- Bandırmaspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bandırmaspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bandırmaspor had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bodrum FK | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Bandırmaspor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bodrum FK vs Bandırmaspor
- 11 April 2026Bodrum FK 0–0 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 8 December 2025Bandırmaspor 2–0 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 9 March 2024Bandırmaspor 0–0 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 22 October 2023Bodrum FK 2–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
- 29 March 2023Bandırmaspor 0–4 Bodrum FK1. Lig
- 23 October 2022Bodrum FK 1–1 Bandırmaspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Bodrum FK and Bandırmaspor
Bodrum FK
- E. Bilsel3 goals
Bandırmaspor
- G. Bruno4 goals
- A. Badji3 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bodrum FK carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.53 for Bandırmaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for Bodrum FK and 0.77 for Bandırmaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bodrum FK rate 0.56 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bandırmaspor rate 0.53 and 1.09.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bandırmaspor, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bodrum FK a 1.2% chance of the title and Bandırmaspor 1.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodrum FK the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Bodrum FK against 0.77 for Bandırmaspor. Bodrum FK's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.09 for Bandırmaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bodrum FK at home · Bandırmaspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Bodrum FK 8, Bandırmaspor 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bodrum FK
- at Antalyaspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 29%
- vs Ümraniyespor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 46%
- at Boluspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 44%
Bandırmaspor
- vs Iğdır FK24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 42%
- at Bursaspor31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 25%
- vs Fatih Karagümrük8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.