FC Porto
vs
Academico Viseu
Taça da Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Porto 2–0 Academico Viseu
The model makes it 69% FC Porto, 20% draw, 11% Academico Viseu — fair odds of 1.45, 5.00 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: FC Porto 2.39, Academico Viseu 0.68.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: FC Porto are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- FC Porto are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Maritimo.
- Academico Viseu are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Estoril.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Porto 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended Academico Viseu 0–3 FC Porto.
Chance to go through
Taça da Liga Quarter-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- FC Porto75%
- Level after ninety minutes17%
- Academico Viseu8%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Porto vs Academico Viseu
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 69% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Porto vs Academico Viseu
FC Porto
- W2-1away to Maritimo10 October 2026
- W3-1Benfica20 September 2026
- W4-1away to Casa Pia12 September 2026
- L0-2Manchester City8 September 2026
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
Academico Viseu
- W2-1Estoril10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Estrela20 September 2026
- W2-1Vitória SC12 September 2026
- W1-0away to GIL Vicente6 September 2026
- L0-3FC Porto29 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Porto conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Academico Viseu won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Academico Viseu scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: FC Porto vs Academico Viseu
- 29 August 2026Academico Viseu 0–3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 8 February 2023Academico Viseu 0–1 FC PortoTaça de Portugal
- 25 January 2023FC Porto 3–0 Academico ViseuTaça da Liga
- 17 July 2021FC Porto 3–2 Academico ViseuFriendlies Clubs
- 12 February 2020FC Porto 3–0 Academico ViseuTaça de Portugal
- 4 February 2020Academico Viseu 1–1 FC PortoTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: FC Porto and Academico Viseu
FC Porto
No leading scorers listed yet.
Academico Viseu
GoalsAssists
- André Clóvis40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Porto carry a model rating of 7.3 against 6.82 for Academico Viseu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.39 goals for FC Porto and 0.68 for Academico Viseu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Porto rate 1.44 in attack and 0.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Academico Viseu rate 0.96 and 1.02.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.39 expected goals for FC Porto against 0.68 for Academico Viseu. FC Porto's attack/defence rating is 1.44/0.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.02 for Academico Viseu.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Porto at home · Academico Viseu away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: FC Porto 8, Academico Viseu 8.
FC Porto score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Academico Viseu have let in 1 there.
Academico Viseu score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); FC Porto have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Porto
- vs Estoril31 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 75%
- vs Napoli4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 53%
- at Vitória SC8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 63%
Academico Viseu
- vs Rio Ave1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 56%
- at Nacional7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 44%
- vs Alverca28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 44%
- at Famalicao6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 32%
- vs Arouca13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.