ES Tunis
vs
US Monastirienne
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ES Tunis 2–1 US Monastirienne
The model makes it 52% ES Tunis, 24% draw, 24% US Monastirienne — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: ES Tunis 2.15, US Monastirienne 1.32.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- ES Tunis are top on 12 points from 5 games; US Monastirienne are 5th on 9 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- ES Tunis are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Olympique Béja.
- US Monastirienne are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to CA Bizertin.
- Last 6 meetings: ES Tunis 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 January 2026, ended US Monastirienne 2–1 ES Tunis.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ES Tunis at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne
ES Tunis
- W3-1Olympique Béja10 October 2026
- W1-0away to CS Hammam-Lif13 September 2026
- W2-1AS Marsa6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane30 August 2026
- W3-2ES Sahel23 August 2026
US Monastirienne
- D0-0away to CA Bizertin10 October 2026
- W2-1away to ES Zarzis16 September 2026
- D3-3US Ben Guerdane12 September 2026
- W2-1Stade Tunisien29 August 2026
- D0-0away to ES Hammam-Sousse22 August 2026
What these results say
- ES Tunis scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- ES Tunis won 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Tunis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- US Monastirienne went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | US Monastirienne | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ES Tunis vs US Monastirienne
- 19 January 2026US Monastirienne 2–1 ES TunisLigue 1
- 15 August 2025ES Tunis 1–1 US MonastirienneLigue 1
- 15 May 2025ES Tunis 0–0 US MonastirienneLigue 1
- 26 January 2025US Monastirienne 0–2 ES TunisLigue 1
- 15 June 2024ES Tunis 2–0 US MonastirienneLigue 1
- 14 April 2024US Monastirienne 1–1 ES TunisLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
ES Tunis carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.4 for US Monastirienne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.15 goals for ES Tunis and 1.32 for US Monastirienne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ES Tunis rate 0.83 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; US Monastirienne rate 0.65 and 1.59.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ES Tunis the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.15 expected goals for ES Tunis against 1.32 for US Monastirienne. ES Tunis's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.59 for US Monastirienne.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ES Tunis at home · US Monastirienne away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Tunis 5, US Monastirienne 5.
ES Tunis score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); US Monastirienne have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
ES Tunis
- at Club Africain21 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
- vs ES Hammam-Sousse28 Nov · Ligue 1win 71%
- at Stade Tunisien5 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
- vs ES Zarzis12 Dec · Ligue 1win 57%
US Monastirienne
- vs ES Sahel21 Nov · Ligue 1win 58%
- at Jeunesse Sportive Omrane28 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs AS Marsa5 Dec · Ligue 1win 54%
- at CS Hammam-Lif12 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.