Dinamo Bucuresti
vs
Farul Constanta
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Bucuresti 2–1 Farul Constanta
The model makes it 52% Dinamo Bucuresti, 25% draw, 23% Farul Constanta — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Bucuresti 2.31, Farul Constanta 1.14.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dinamo Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Dinamo Bucuresti wins, grey are draws, red are Farul Constanta wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Bucuresti at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta
Dinamo Bucuresti
- W3-1away to Csikszereda11 September 2026
- W2-1FCSB5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Corvinul Hunedoara29 August 2026
- W2-1Universitatea Cluj22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Rapid15 August 2026
Farul Constanta
- W4-2Uta Arad11 September 2026
- D0-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj4 September 2026
- D0-0FC Botosani30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe23 August 2026
- D1-1away to Arges Pitesti14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 20 |
| 5 | Farul Constanta | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta
- 11 July 2026Dinamo Bucuresti 1–3 Farul ConstantaFriendlies Clubs
- 4 February 2026Farul Constanta 2–3 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
- 3 December 2025Farul Constanta 0–0 Dinamo BucurestiCupa României
- 22 September 2025Dinamo Bucuresti 1–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 15 February 2025Dinamo Bucuresti 0–2 Farul ConstantaLiga I
- 4 October 2024Farul Constanta 1–1 Dinamo BucurestiLiga I
Leading scorers: Dinamo Bucuresti and Farul Constanta
Dinamo Bucuresti
- D. Armstrong4 goals7 assists
- Alberto Soro3 goals2 assists
- Martín Pascual3 goals
Farul Constanta
- E. Rădăslăvescu5 goals2 assists
- M. Ahlinvi3 goals1 assists
- Iustin Doicaru3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dinamo Bucuresti carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.31 for Farul Constanta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.31 goals for Dinamo Bucuresti and 1.14 for Farul Constanta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Bucuresti rate 0.84 in attack and 1.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Farul Constanta rate 0.57 and 1.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Bucuresti a 45.8% chance of the title and Farul Constanta 1.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Bucuresti the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Dinamo Bucuresti against 1.14 for Farul Constanta. Dinamo Bucuresti's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.69 for Farul Constanta.