Oțelul
vs
Corvinul Hunedoara
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Oțelul 1–0 Corvinul Hunedoara
The model makes it 36% Oțelul, 35% draw, 29% Corvinul Hunedoara — fair odds of 2.78, 2.86 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Oțelul 0.95, Corvinul Hunedoara 0.74.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 24%, under 2.5: 76%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Oțelul vs Corvinul Hunedoara
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 17 | 14 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Oțelul wins, grey are draws, red are Corvinul Hunedoara wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oțelul at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Oțelul vs Corvinul Hunedoara
Oțelul
- L0-3away to Universitatea Cluj14 September 2026
- L0-1Rapid6 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Voluntari28 August 2026
- W1-0Arges Pitesti24 August 2026
- D1-1Universitatea Craiova16 August 2026
Corvinul Hunedoara
- L0-1Universitatea Craiova13 September 2026
- L0-2away to Petrolul Ploiesti6 September 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Bucuresti29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Uta Arad22 August 2026
- W3-0CFR 1907 Cluj16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Oțelul | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Corvinul Hunedoara
- 15 May 2024Corvinul Hunedoara 2–2 OțelulCupa României
Leading scorers: Oțelul and Corvinul Hunedoara
Oțelul
- Patrick4 goals
Corvinul Hunedoara
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Oțelul carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.4 for Corvinul Hunedoara. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.95 goals for Oțelul and 0.74 for Corvinul Hunedoara. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oțelul rate 0.49 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Corvinul Hunedoara rate 0.44 and 1.19.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Corvinul Hunedoara, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oțelul a 0.1% chance of the title and Corvinul Hunedoara 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oțelul the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Oțelul against 0.74 for Corvinul Hunedoara. Oțelul's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.19 for Corvinul Hunedoara.