Petrolul Ploiesti
vs
Csikszereda
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Petrolul Ploiesti 2–0 Csikszereda
The model makes it 62% Petrolul Ploiesti, 22% draw, 16% Csikszereda — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Petrolul Ploiesti 2.84, Csikszereda 0.90.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Petrolul Ploiesti vs Csikszereda
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Petrolul Ploiesti wins, grey are draws, red are Csikszereda wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Petrolul Ploiesti at 62% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Petrolul Ploiesti vs Csikszereda
Petrolul Ploiesti
- D2-2away to FCSB14 September 2026
- W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Universitatea Cluj28 August 2026
- L0-2Rapid21 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Voluntari14 August 2026
Csikszereda
- L1-3Dinamo Bucuresti11 September 2026
- L1-5away to Uta Arad5 September 2026
- L2-3CFR 1907 Cluj29 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Botosani24 August 2026
- D0-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 16 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Petrolul Ploiesti vs Csikszereda
- 6 April 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 2–0 CsikszeredaLiga I
- 1 March 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 1–1 CsikszeredaLiga I
- 24 October 2025Csikszereda 1–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
- 18 August 2021Petrolul Ploiesti 2–0 CsikszeredaLiga II
- 21 September 2020Csikszereda 1–2 Petrolul PloiestiLiga II
- 8 March 2020Csikszereda 1–2 Petrolul PloiestiLiga II
Leading scorers: Petrolul Ploiesti and Csikszereda
Petrolul Ploiesti
- B. Malula3 goals
- D. Nlundulu3 goals
Csikszereda
- M. Eppel4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Petrolul Ploiesti carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.14 for Csikszereda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.84 goals for Petrolul Ploiesti and 0.90 for Csikszereda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Petrolul Ploiesti rate 0.79 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Csikszereda rate 0.53 and 2.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Petrolul Ploiesti a 4.3% chance of the title and Csikszereda 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Petrolul Ploiesti the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.84 expected goals for Petrolul Ploiesti against 0.9 for Csikszereda. Petrolul Ploiesti's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.21 for Csikszereda.