FC Volendam
vs
Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: FC Volendam 2–0 Jong Utrecht
The model makes it 59% FC Volendam, 24% draw, 17% Jong Utrecht — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: FC Volendam 2.02, Jong Utrecht 0.84.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to FC Volendam: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Volendam are 8th on 15 points from 10 games; Jong Utrecht are bottom on 7 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- FC Volendam have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vitesse.
- Jong Utrecht have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to De Graafschap.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Volendam 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 April 2025, ended Jong Utrecht 2–3 FC Volendam.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Volendam at 59% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht
FC Volendam
- W2-0Vitesse9 October 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC3 October 2026
- W3-2VVV Venlo26 September 2026
- L1-4away to Jong AZ18 September 2026
- W2-0Den Bosch13 September 2026
Jong Utrecht
- L1-2away to De Graafschap9 October 2026
- L1-3VVV Venlo18 September 2026
- W6-1Jong Ajax14 September 2026
- W3-2away to NAC Breda11 September 2026
- D0-0FC Eindhoven7 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Volendam scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jong Utrecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jong Utrecht conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Jong Utrecht had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Volendam | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 15 |
| 20 | Jong Utrecht | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Volendam
Chance to finish in the top four · 51% today
Jong Utrecht
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht
- 28 April 2025Jong Utrecht 2–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 8 November 2024FC Volendam 2–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 4 February 2022FC Volendam 2–0 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
- 22 November 2021Jong Utrecht 0–1 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 16 April 2021Jong Utrecht 2–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
- 11 September 2020FC Volendam 0–1 Jong UtrechtEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: FC Volendam and Jong Utrecht
FC Volendam
GoalsAssists
- H. Veerman102
- R. Niemeijer42
Jong Utrecht
GoalsAssists
- E. C. Owen50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Volendam carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.23 for Jong Utrecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for FC Volendam and 0.84 for Jong Utrecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Volendam rate 0.65 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jong Utrecht rate 0.55 and 1.91.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Volendam a 10.2% chance of the title and Jong Utrecht 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Volendam the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for FC Volendam against 0.84 for Jong Utrecht. FC Volendam's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.91 for Jong Utrecht.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Volendam at home · Jong Utrecht away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: FC Volendam 10, Jong Utrecht 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Volendam
- at FC Eindhoven27 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 42%
- vs De Graafschap30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 58%
- at Helmond Sport6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Roda14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 35%
- vs Jong Ajax20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 64%
Jong Utrecht
- vs Dordrecht2 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 52%
- at Den Bosch7 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- vs Emmen20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 41%
- at Jong PSV U2123 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.