Den Bosch
vs
MVV
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: Den Bosch 1–0 MVV
The model makes it 51% Den Bosch, 27% draw, 22% MVV — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Den Bosch 1.68, MVV 0.93.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Den Bosch: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Den Bosch are 14th on 11 points from 10 games; MVV are 7th on 16 points from 10 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- Den Bosch have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Jong AZ.
- MVV have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to NAC Breda.
- Last 6 meetings: MVV 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended Den Bosch 1–2 MVV.
More Eerste Divisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Den Bosch vs MVV
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Den Bosch at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Den Bosch vs MVV
Den Bosch
- W1-0away to Jong AZ9 October 2026
- D1-1Dordrecht3 October 2026
- L0-1away to De Graafschap27 September 2026
- W2-1Helmond Sport18 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Volendam13 September 2026
MVV
- L0-1away to NAC Breda9 October 2026
- L1-4away to FC OSS3 October 2026
- W2-0Helmond Sport26 September 2026
- L1-6away to Waalwijk18 September 2026
- L0-4Almere City FC11 September 2026
What these results say
- Den Bosch conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Den Bosch had two goals or fewer.
- MVV failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- MVV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Den Bosch | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | MVV | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Den Bosch
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
MVV
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
From our Eerste Divisie season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Den Bosch vs MVV
- 18 January 2026Den Bosch 1–2 MVVEerste Divisie
- 16 September 2025MVV 2–4 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 18 January 2025MVV 5–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
- 30 October 2024MVV 2–1 Den BoschKNVB Beker
- 23 August 2024Den Bosch 1–1 MVVEerste Divisie
- 23 March 2024MVV 1–0 Den BoschEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Den Bosch and MVV
Den Bosch
GoalsAssists
- S. Karlsson Grach40
MVV
GoalsAssists
- O. Dumont51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Den Bosch carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.09 for MVV. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Den Bosch and 0.93 for MVV. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Den Bosch rate 0.52 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MVV rate 0.43 and 1.99.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour MVV, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Den Bosch a 0% chance of the title and MVV 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Den Bosch the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Den Bosch against 0.93 for MVV. Den Bosch's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.99 for MVV.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Den Bosch at home · MVV away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: Den Bosch 10, MVV 10.
Den Bosch score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); MVV have let in 6 there.
MVV score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Den Bosch have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Den Bosch
- at Emmen30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 25%
- vs Jong Utrecht7 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 44%
- at Waalwijk14 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 22%
- vs VVV Venlo20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 33%
MVV
- vs Excelsior28 Oct · KNVB Bekerwin 16%
- vs VVV Venlo31 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- at Emmen8 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 20%
- vs Vitesse15 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 29%
- at De Graafschap20 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.