Northampton
vs
Colchester
League Two prediction
Our model says: Northampton 1–0 Colchester
The model makes it 40% Northampton, 29% draw, 31% Colchester — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Northampton 1.36, Colchester 1.16.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Northampton are 23rd on 7 points from 8 games; Colchester are 19th on 10 points from 9 games — League Two.
- Northampton are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to York.
- Colchester have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Newport County.
- Last 5 meetings: Northampton 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 February 2023, ended Colchester 0–1 Northampton.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Northampton vs Colchester
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Northampton at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Northampton vs Colchester
Northampton
- D1-1away to York10 October 2026
- L0-1Rotherham19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Shrewsbury12 September 2026
- W1-0Newport County5 September 2026
- D1-1Crawley Town1 September 2026
Colchester
- L0-1away to Newport County10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Shrewsbury26 September 2026
- D1-1Cheltenham19 September 2026
- D1-1Crewe12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swindon Town5 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Northampton had two goals or fewer.
- Northampton failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Northampton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Colchester did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Colchester conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Colchester scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Northampton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
Colchester
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Northampton vs Colchester
- 25 February 2023Colchester 0–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 30 July 2022Northampton 3–2 ColchesterLeague Two
- 19 February 2022Northampton 3–0 ColchesterLeague Two
- 14 August 2021Colchester 0–1 NorthamptonLeague Two
- 24 August 2019Colchester 1–0 NorthamptonLeague Two
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Northampton carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.13 for Colchester. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Northampton and 1.16 for Colchester. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Northampton rate 0.47 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Colchester rate 0.47 and 2.00.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Colchester, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Northampton a 0.5% chance of the title and Colchester 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Northampton the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Northampton against 1.16 for Colchester. Northampton's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2 for Colchester.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Northampton at home · Colchester away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Northampton 8, Colchester 9.
Northampton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Colchester have let in 1 there.
Colchester score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Northampton have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Northampton
- at Accrington Stanley31 Oct · League Twowin 33%
Colchester
- vs Walsall31 Oct · League Twowin 37%
- vs Gillingham14 Nov · League Twowin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.