Exeter City
vs
Fleetwood Town
League Two prediction
Our model says: Exeter City 1–0 Fleetwood Town
The model makes it 45% Exeter City, 29% draw, 26% Fleetwood Town — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Exeter City 1.46, Fleetwood Town 1.00.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Exeter City are 14th on 12 points from 10 games; Fleetwood Town are 16th on 11 points from 10 games — League Two.
- Exeter City have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Shrewsbury.
- Fleetwood Town have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Walsall.
- Last 6 meetings: Exeter City 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 February 2024, ended Exeter City 1–1 Fleetwood Town.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Exeter City at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town
Exeter City
- W1-0away to Shrewsbury10 October 2026
- W1-0Rotherham3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol Rovers26 September 2026
- D0-0Tranmere19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale12 September 2026
Fleetwood Town
- D1-1Walsall10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City3 October 2026
- L1-2Rochdale26 September 2026
- L1-3away to Barnet19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County12 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Exeter City had two goals or fewer.
- Fleetwood Town did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Exeter City
Chance to finish in the top four · 19% today
Fleetwood Town
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town
- 24 February 2024Exeter City 1–1 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 11 November 2023Fleetwood Town 3–0 Exeter CityLeague One
- 1 April 2023Fleetwood Town 2–2 Exeter CityLeague One
- 22 October 2022Exeter City 2–1 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 22 March 2014Exeter City 3–0 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 28 September 2013Fleetwood Town 1–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Exeter City carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.11 for Fleetwood Town. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Exeter City and 1.00 for Fleetwood Town. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Exeter City rate 0.52 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fleetwood Town rate 0.44 and 1.93.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Exeter City a 2.2% chance of the title and Fleetwood Town 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Exeter City the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Exeter City against 1.00 for Fleetwood Town. Exeter City's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.93 for Fleetwood Town.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Exeter City at home · Fleetwood Town away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Exeter City 10, Fleetwood Town 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Exeter City
- at Salford City31 Oct · League Twowin 29%
- vs Cheltenham14 Nov · League Twowin 50%
- at Oldham21 Nov · League Twowin 35%
Fleetwood Town
- vs Arsenal27 Oct · League Cupwin 4%
- vs Bristol Rovers31 Oct · League Twowin 40%
- vs Tranmere14 Nov · League Twowin 47%
- at Crawley Town21 Nov · League Twowin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.