Charlton
vs
Norwich
Championship prediction
Our model says: Charlton 0–1 Norwich
The model makes it 34% Charlton, 28% draw, 38% Norwich — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Charlton 1.26, Norwich 1.35.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Norwich: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Charlton are 12th on 14 points from 10 games; Norwich are 19th on 9 points from 9 games — Championship.
- Charlton have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Burnley.
- Norwich are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Swansea.
- Last 6 meetings: Norwich 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Charlton 0–1 Norwich.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Charlton vs Norwich
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Norwich at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Charlton vs Norwich
Charlton
- D2-2away to Burnley13 October 2026
- D1-1Bristol City10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
- D0-0QPR9 September 2026
Norwich
- L1-2away to Swansea10 October 2026
- L3-4Bolton20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Middlesbrough12 September 2026
- W2-1Birmingham9 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sheffield Utd5 September 2026
What these results say
- Charlton did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Norwich scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Norwich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Norwich had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 14 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Charlton
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
Norwich
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Norwich
- 21 March 2026Charlton 0–1 NorwichChampionship
- 26 December 2025Norwich 1–0 CharltonChampionship
- 9 January 2022Charlton 0–1 NorwichFA Cup
- 22 August 2017Norwich 4–1 CharltonLeague Cup
- 10 February 2015Charlton 2–3 NorwichChampionship
- 30 September 2014Norwich 0–1 CharltonChampionship
Leading scorers: Charlton and Norwich
Charlton
GoalsAssists
- T. Campbell41
Norwich
GoalsAssists
- M. Touré50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Charlton carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.59 for Norwich. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Charlton and 1.35 for Norwich. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charlton rate 0.56 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Norwich rate 0.87 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Charlton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Charlton a 0.1% chance of the title and Norwich 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Norwich the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Charlton against 1.35 for Norwich. Charlton's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.49 for Norwich.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Charlton at home · Norwich away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CharltonNorwich
Charlton are 11th after 10 Championship matches (between 1st and 11th so far); Norwich are 17th after 9 (between 9th and 23rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Charlton 10, Norwich 9.
Charlton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Norwich have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Charlton
- at Middlesbrough31 Oct · Championshipwin 18%
- vs Bolton3 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- vs Sheffield Utd7 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- at Wolves21 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
Norwich
- vs Watford31 Oct · Championshipwin 60%
- at Derby3 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
- at Bristol City7 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.