AVS
vs
Moreirense
Taça de Portugal prediction
Our model says: AVS 1–0 Moreirense
The model makes it 43% AVS, 28% draw, 29% Moreirense — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: AVS 1.48, Moreirense 1.14.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AVS are 12th in Segunda Liga on 9 points from 7 games; Moreirense are 12th in Primeira Liga on 8 points from 8 games.
- AVS have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Penafiel.
- Moreirense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to GIL Vicente.
- Last 5 meetings: Moreirense 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Moreirense 2–2 AVS.
Chance to go through
Taça de Portugal Round of 64 — a single match: the winner goes through.
- AVS44%
- Level after ninety minutes27%
- Moreirense29%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More Taça de Portugal predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AVS vs Moreirense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AVS at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AVS vs Moreirense
AVS
- W2-1away to Penafiel9 October 2026
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa7 September 2026
- W2-0Feirense30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chaves23 August 2026
Moreirense
- L0-1GIL Vicente9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026
- W3-1Maritimo14 September 2026
- L0-4Benfica9 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Porto4 September 2026
What these results say
- AVS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Moreirense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Moreirense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AVS and Moreirense in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | AVS | Segunda Liga | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 | Moreirense | Primeira Liga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Segunda Liga · Primeira Liga
Head-to-head: AVS vs Moreirense
- 18 July 2026Moreirense 2–2 AVSFriendlies Clubs
- 16 May 2026Moreirense 0–0 AVSPrimeira Liga
- 3 January 2026AVS 0–2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 17 May 2025AVS 0–3 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 4 January 2025Moreirense 1–1 AVSPrimeira Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AVS carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.6 for Moreirense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for AVS and 1.14 for Moreirense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AVS rate 0.74 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Moreirense rate 0.74 and 1.23.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AVS the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for AVS against 1.14 for Moreirense. AVS's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.23 for Moreirense.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AVS at home · Moreirense away
League matches only, this season — AVS in the Segunda Liga, Moreirense in the Primeira Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: AVS 7 in the Segunda Liga, Moreirense 8 in the Primeira Liga.
AVS score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Moreirense have let in 3 there.
Moreirense score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); AVS have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AVS
- vs Tondela25 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 43%
- at União de Leiria31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- vs Vizela6 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 54%
- at Benfica B15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 29%
- vs Leixoes29 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 54%
Moreirense
- at Estoril25 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 30%
- vs Estrela31 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 37%
- at Sporting CP7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 9%
- vs Santa Clara28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 27%
- at Alverca6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.