Atromitos
vs
AEK Athens FC
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Atromitos 0–2 AEK Athens FC
The model makes it 21% Atromitos, 27% draw, 52% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 4.76, 3.70 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Atromitos 0.84, AEK Athens FC 1.99.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Atromitos are 11th on 2 points from 5 games; AEK Athens FC are 3rd on 11 points from 5 games — Super League 1.
- Atromitos have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Kifisia.
- AEK Athens FC are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Volos NFC.
- Last 6 meetings: AEK Athens FC 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Atromitos 2–2 AEK Athens FC.
All Greek Super League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AEK Athens FC at 52% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC
Atromitos
- L1-2Kifisia19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Iraklis 190812 September 2026
- D1-1Kalamata6 September 2026
- L1-2PAOK30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Olympiakos Piraeus22 August 2026
AEK Athens FC
- W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Asteras Tripolis13 September 2026
- W5-0Aris Thessalonikis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Kifisia30 August 2026
- W4-0Iraklis 190822 August 2026
What these results say
- Atromitos did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Atromitos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atromitos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AEK Athens FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AEK Athens FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Atromitos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC
- 15 March 2026Atromitos 2–2 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 7 December 2025AEK Athens FC 4–1 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 15 February 2025AEK Athens FC 2–1 AtromitosSuper League 1
- 3 November 2024Atromitos 0–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 21 January 2024Atromitos 0–5 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
- 28 September 2023AEK Athens FC 2–1 AtromitosSuper League 1
Leading scorers: Atromitos and AEK Athens FC
Atromitos
- S. Moutoussamy2 goals
AEK Athens FC
- B. Varga4 goals
- L. Jović4 goals
- Zini2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Atromitos carry a model rating of 6.6 against 7.12 for AEK Athens FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.84 goals for Atromitos and 1.99 for AEK Athens FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atromitos rate 0.80 in attack and 1.32 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEK Athens FC rate 1.26 and 0.73.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Atromitos against 1.99 for AEK Athens FC. Atromitos's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.73 for AEK Athens FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atromitos at home · AEK Athens FC away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Atromitos 5, AEK Athens FC 5.
Atromitos score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); AEK Athens FC have let in 1 there.
AEK Athens FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Atromitos have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Atromitos
- at Aris Thessalonikis24 Oct · Super League 1win 33%
- vs Volos NFC31 Oct · Super League 1win 49%
- at OFI7 Nov · Super League 1win 33%
- at Levadiakos21 Nov · Super League 1win 35%
AEK Athens FC
- at Manchester City20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 24%
- vs Panetolikos24 Oct · Super League 1win 63%
- at Panathinaikos31 Oct · Super League 1win 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.