Atalanta
vs
Parma
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atalanta 1–0 Parma
The model makes it 54% Atalanta, 28% draw, 18% Parma — fair odds of 1.85, 3.57 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Atalanta 1.58, Parma 0.71.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: Atalanta are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Atalanta's rating is built from 45 Serie A matches and Parma's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 828 matches.
Key facts
- Atalanta are 10th on 9 points from 7 games; Parma are 16th on 4 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Atalanta have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to AC Milan.
- Parma have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Inter.
- Last 6 meetings: Atalanta 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Atalanta 4–0 Parma.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atalanta vs Parma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atalanta at 54% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atalanta vs Parma
Atalanta
- L2-3away to AC Milan18 October 2026
- W3-1Venezia12 October 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
- L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
- L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
Parma
- L0-3away to Inter10 October 2026
- W2-1Genoa20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Como14 September 2026
- D1-1Monza6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026
What these results say
- Atalanta conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Parma conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Parma failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atalanta vs Parma
- 25 January 2026Atalanta 4–0 ParmaSerie A
- 30 August 2025Parma 1–1 AtalantaSerie A
- 25 May 2025Atalanta 2–3 ParmaSerie A
- 23 November 2024Parma 1–3 AtalantaSerie A
- 4 August 2024Parma 4–1 AtalantaFriendlies Clubs
- 9 May 2021Parma 2–5 AtalantaSerie A
Leading scorers: Atalanta and Parma
Atalanta
GoalsAssists
- N. Krstović41
Parma
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atalanta carry a model rating of 7.03 against 6.71 for Parma. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Atalanta and 0.71 for Parma. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atalanta rate 1.21 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Parma rate 0.67 and 0.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atalanta a 0.3% chance of the title and Parma 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Atalanta against 0.71 for Parma. Atalanta's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/0.94 for Parma.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atalanta at home · Parma away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AtalantaParma
Atalanta are 10th after 7 Serie A matches (between 4th and 11th so far); Parma are 17th after 6 (between 15th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Atalanta 7, Parma 6.
Atalanta score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Parma have let in 1 there.
Parma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Atalanta have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Atalanta
- vs Kairat Almaty5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 92%
- at Monza8 Nov · Serie Awin 53%
Parma
- vs Bologna7 Nov · Serie Awin 29%
- vs AS Roma21 Nov · Serie Awin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.