Angers
vs
Lorient
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Angers 0–1 Lorient
The model makes it 30% Angers, 29% draw, 41% Lorient — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Angers 1.09, Lorient 1.35.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Lorient: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Angers are 12th on 7 points from 6 games; Lorient are 8th on 8 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Angers have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Stade Brestois 29.
- Lorient have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Paris FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Angers 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Angers 2–1 Lorient.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Angers vs Lorient
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lorient at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Angers vs Lorient
Angers
- L1-5away to Stade Brestois 2910 October 2026
- W2-0Estac Troyes19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Le Havre12 September 2026
- L1-2Rennes6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Auxerre29 August 2026
Lorient
- W1-0Paris FC10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Le Mans19 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Lens5 September 2026
- L1-2Estac Troyes29 August 2026
What these results say
- Angers scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lorient scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Angers
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 55% today
Lorient
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Angers vs Lorient
- 8 August 2026Angers 2–1 LorientFriendlies Clubs
- 15 February 2026Lorient 2–0 AngersLigue 1
- 26 October 2025Angers 2–0 LorientLigue 1
- 9 August 2025Angers 1–0 LorientFriendlies Clubs
- 3 August 2024Lorient 2–1 AngersFriendlies Clubs
- 5 February 2023Lorient 0–0 AngersLigue 1
The two sides
Angers carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.79 for Lorient. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Angers and 1.35 for Lorient. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Angers rate 0.68 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lorient rate 0.84 and 0.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Angers a 0% chance of the title and Lorient 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lorient the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Angers against 1.35 for Lorient. Angers's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/0.95 for Lorient.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Angers at home · Lorient away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AngersLorient
Angers are 10th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 6th and 15th so far); Lorient are 8th after 6 (between 5th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Angers 6, Lorient 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Angers
- at Lyon31 Oct · Ligue 1win 16%
- vs Nice8 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- at Paris FC22 Nov · Ligue 1win 13%
- vs Lens28 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
Lorient
- vs Stade Brestois 2931 Oct · Ligue 1win 43%
- at Le Havre8 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs Rennes22 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Paris Saint Germain28 Nov · Ligue 1win 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.