Al Shahaniya
vs
Al Sadd
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Shahaniya 1–2 Al Sadd
The model makes it 24% Al Shahaniya, 20% draw, 56% Al Sadd — fair odds of 4.17, 5.00 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (7%).
Expected goals: Al Shahaniya 1.71, Al Sadd 2.86.
Both teams to score: 78%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Al Sadd: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Shahaniya are 7th on 7 points from 5 games; Al Sadd are 2nd on 12 points from 5 games — Stars League.
- Al Shahaniya have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Lusail City.
- Al Sadd have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Al-Arabi SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Sadd 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 February 2026, ended Al Sadd 4–0 Al Shahaniya.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Sadd at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd
Al Shahaniya
- W1-0Lusail City10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Duhail SC12 September 2026
- L2-4away to Al Shamal4 September 2026
- W3-2Al-Sailiya29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Al-Gharafa21 August 2026
Al Sadd
- L2-3Al-Arabi SC9 October 2026
- W6-3away to Al-Sailiya10 September 2026
- W4-1Al-Gharafa5 September 2026
- W6-2away to Qatar SC28 August 2026
- W3-1Al Ahli Doha22 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Shahaniya scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Shahaniya conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Al Shahaniya.
- Al Sadd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Sadd conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al Sadd had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al Shahaniya | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Shahaniya vs Al Sadd
- 5 February 2026Al Sadd 4–0 Al ShahaniyaStars League
- 28 October 2025Al Sadd 1–2 Al ShahaniyaQSL Cup
- 12 September 2025Al Shahaniya 1–0 Al SaddStars League
- 7 March 2025Al Shahaniya 0–5 Al SaddStars League
- 18 October 2024Al Sadd 4–2 Al ShahaniyaStars League
- 24 April 2023Al Sadd 5–1 Al ShahaniyaEmir Cup
Leading scorers: Al Shahaniya and Al Sadd
Al Shahaniya
GoalsAssists
- F. Antonucci32
- A. Traoré20
Al Sadd
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Firmino42
- Akram Afif32
- Y. Abdurisag12
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al Shahaniya carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.62 for Al Sadd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Al Shahaniya and 2.86 for Al Sadd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Shahaniya rate 0.55 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Sadd rate 1.01 and 1.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Sadd the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Al Shahaniya against 2.86 for Al Sadd. Al Shahaniya's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1.74 for Al Sadd.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Shahaniya at home · Al Sadd away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al Shahaniya 5, Al Sadd 5.
Al Shahaniya score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Al Sadd have let in 2 there.
Al Sadd score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Al Shahaniya have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Shahaniya
- at Al Ahli Doha6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 31%
- vs Al Wakrah20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 38%
- vs Al-Rayyan SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 21%
- at Qatar SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 40%
Al Sadd
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 11%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 30%
- vs Al Shamal6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 57%
- at Al-Rayyan SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.