Primeira Liga

1. FC Porto — 27 points from 9 played (9 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost), 21 scored, 4 conceded, goal difference +17. Form, oldest first: W W W W W.
2. Benfica — 22 points from 9 played (7 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost), 26 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference +18. Form, oldest first: W W L W W.
3. Sporting CP — 18 points from 9 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 21 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W D D W L.
4. Santa Clara — 18 points from 9 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 13 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +7. Form, oldest first: W W D W L.
5. Arouca — 17 points from 9 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 12 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: D L D W W.
6. Academico Viseu — 17 points from 9 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 13 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: W W W W W.
7. GIL Vicente — 14 points from 9 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 8 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: L D W W L.
8. Alverca — 11 points from 9 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 13 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: L W W W L.
9. SC Braga — 11 points from 9 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 9 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: W D L L L.
10. Moreirense — 11 points from 9 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 11 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L W D L W.
11. Famalicao — 10 points from 9 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 14 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D D W L W.
12. Estrela — 10 points from 9 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 14 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: W D L L L.
13. Vitória SC — 8 points from 9 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 10 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: D L D L W.
14. Maritimo — 8 points from 9 played (2 won, 2 drawn, 5 lost), 9 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L L D L L.
15. Nacional — 7 points from 9 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost), 10 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.
16. Casa Pia — 7 points from 9 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost), 5 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: D L W L W.
17. Rio Ave — 7 points from 9 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost), 8 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -13. Form, oldest first: L D L W L.
18. Estoril — 2 points from 9 played (0 won, 2 drawn, 7 lost), 5 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: D L L L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-10-28, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 11 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Rio Ave — bottom-three risk down 1.1, to 59.6%.
• Casa Pia — bottom-three risk up 0.4, to 56.7%.
• Benfica — chance of finishing top down 0.2, to 28.9%.
• Estrela — bottom-three risk up 0.2, to 18.5%.
• Maritimo — bottom-three risk up 0.2, to 42.6%.

Season projection

Every one of the 225 matches this phase has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. These figures cover the regular season only. The regular season is not the end of the competition: Final follow it, and no projection here covers them. Movement is measured against 2026-10-28, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. FC Porto — projected to finish on 82 points, from 27 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 59.6% (up 0.1), finishes top two 88.2%, bottom three 0%.
2. Benfica — projected to finish on 77.3 points, from 22 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 28.9% (down 0.2), finishes top two 72.4%, bottom three 0%.
3. Sporting CP — projected to finish on 71.3 points, from 18 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 11.1% (up 0.1), finishes top two 36.1%, bottom three 0%.
4. Academico Viseu — projected to finish on 56.9 points, from 17 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.3%, finishes top two 1.7%, bottom three 0%.
5. Santa Clara — projected to finish on 55.1 points, from 18 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0.1%, finishes top two 0.7%, bottom three 0%.
6. Arouca — projected to finish on 53.3 points, from 17 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.6%, bottom three 0.2%.
7. SC Braga — projected to finish on 50.7 points, from 11 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0.2%, bottom three 0.4%.
8. GIL Vicente — projected to finish on 48.4 points, from 14 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 0.6%.
9. Famalicao — projected to finish on 46.6 points, from 10 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 1.6%.
10. Alverca — projected to finish on 43.5 points, from 11 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 4.9%.
11. Vitória SC — projected to finish on 39.9 points, from 8 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 8.7%.
12. Moreirense — projected to finish on 39.5 points, from 11 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 10.7%.
13. Estrela — projected to finish on 37 points, from 10 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 18.5%.
14. Nacional — projected to finish on 33.5 points, from 7 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 31.4%.
15. Maritimo — projected to finish on 31.6 points, from 8 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 42.6%.
16. Casa Pia — projected to finish on 28.8 points, from 7 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 56.7%.
17. Rio Ave — projected to finish on 28.5 points, from 7 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 59.6%.
18. Estoril — projected to finish on 26.8 points, from 2 after 9 played. Finishes top of the regular season 0%, finishes top two 0%, bottom three 64.2%.

Top scorers

1. V. Pavlidis (Benfica) — 9 goals, 3 assists.
2. L. Suárez (Sporting CP) — 8 goals, 1 assist.
3. G. Prestianni (Benfica) — 6 goals, 4 assists.
4. Barbero (Arouca) — 5 goals.
5. Gonçalo Paciência (Santa Clara) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
6. G. Koutsias (Famalicao) — 5 goals.
7. Pau Victor (SC Braga) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
8. A. Marcus (Estrela) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
9. L. Antonetti (Estrela) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
10. Borja Sainz (FC Porto) — 4 goals.
11. André Clóvis (Academico Viseu) — 4 goals.
12. Gabri Veiga (FC Porto) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
13. I. Stoica (Estrela) — 4 goals, 2 assists.
14. Flávio Gonçalves (Sporting CP) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
15. João Guilherme (Academico Viseu) — 3 goals.
16. Vivaldo Semedo (Alverca) — 3 goals.
17. D. Camara (Alverca) — 3 goals.
18. André Silva (FC Porto) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
19. Héctor Hernández (GIL Vicente) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
20. J. Blesa (Rio Ave) — 3 goals, 1 assist.