HNL

1. HNK Hajduk Split — 23 points from 11 played (7 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 21 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +10. Form, oldest first: W L W W D.
2. Dinamo Zagreb — 22 points from 10 played (7 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost), 25 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference +12. Form, oldest first: L W L W W.
3. NK Varazdin — 18 points from 11 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 3 lost), 15 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: D D W L L.
4. NK Osijek — 17 points from 11 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 19 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W D L D L.
5. HNK Rijeka — 17 points from 10 played (5 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 17 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: D W L W L.
6. Istra 1961 — 13 points from 11 played (3 won, 4 drawn, 4 lost), 19 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W L W L D.
7. NK Slaven Belupo — 13 points from 11 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 6 lost), 14 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference -9. Form, oldest first: L D W L W.
8. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — 11 points from 11 played (3 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost), 13 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -4. Form, oldest first: D L L W D.
9. Rudes — 10 points from 11 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 7 lost), 14 scored, 27 conceded, goal difference -13. Form, oldest first: L D W L W.
10. HNK Gorica — 7 points from 11 played (1 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost), 7 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: D W L D D.

What moved

Measured against 2026-10-28, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 7 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Rudes — bottom-three risk down 0.4, to 76.5%.
• Istra 1961 — bottom-three risk up 0.2, to 28.4%.
• Dinamo Zagreb — title chance up 0.1, to 77.7%.
• HNK Hajduk Split — title chance down 0.1, to 18.1%.
• HNK Rijeka — title chance up 0.1, to 2.7%.

Season projection

Every one of the 126 matches this competition has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. Movement is measured against 2026-10-28, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Dinamo Zagreb — projected to finish on 78.2 points, from 22 after 10 played. Wins it 77.7% (up 0.1), finishes top four 99.8%, bottom one 0%.
2. HNK Hajduk Split — projected to finish on 68.3 points, from 23 after 11 played. Wins it 18.1% (down 0.1), finishes top four 97%, bottom one 0%.
3. HNK Rijeka — projected to finish on 58.1 points, from 17 after 10 played. Wins it 2.7% (up 0.1), finishes top four 77.3%, bottom one 0.2%.
4. NK Varazdin — projected to finish on 55.1 points, from 18 after 11 played. Wins it 1.3%, finishes top four 66.8%, bottom one 0.1%.
5. NK Osijek — projected to finish on 45.7 points, from 17 after 11 played. Wins it 0.1%, finishes top four 19.3%, bottom one 2.9%.
6. Istra 1961 — projected to finish on 44.5 points, from 13 after 11 played. Wins it 0.1%, finishes top four 16.6%, bottom one 4.5%.
7. NK Slaven Belupo — projected to finish on 42 points, from 13 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 8.3%, bottom one 7.8%.
8. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — projected to finish on 41.5 points, from 11 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 10.6%, bottom one 9.1%.
9. Rudes — projected to finish on 34.3 points, from 10 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 2.8%, bottom one 37.4%.
10. HNK Gorica — projected to finish on 33 points, from 7 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 1.5%, bottom one 38%.

Top scorers

1. D. Beljo (Dinamo Zagreb) — 12 goals, 5 assists.
2. E. Frederiksen (Istra 1961) — 8 goals, 4 assists.
3. I. Nestorovski (NK Slaven Belupo) — 7 goals, 2 assists.
4. A. León (NK Osijek) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
5. H. Jaganjac (Istra 1961) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
6. M. Šego (HNK Hajduk Split) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
7. N. Omerović (NK Osijek) — 5 goals.
8. D. Adu-Adjei (HNK Rijeka) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
9. S. Vignato (HNK Rijeka) — 4 goals, 1 assist.
10. L. Mamić (NK Varazdin) — 4 goals.
11. B. Bogojević (HNK Gorica) — 4 goals.
12. D. Ahmeti (Istra 1961) — 3 goals, 4 assists.
13. T. Fruk (HNK Rijeka) — 3 goals, 4 assists.
14. D. Vuković (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
15. I. Canjuga (NK Varazdin) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
16. N. Skoko (Rudes) — 3 goals.
17. N. Galešić (Dinamo Zagreb) — 3 goals.
18. M. Livaja (HNK Hajduk Split) — 3 goals.
19. Tiago Dantas (HNK Rijeka) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
20. A. Sanyang (HNK Hajduk Split) — 2 goals, 2 assists.