Toulouse
vs
Strasbourg
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Toulouse 2–1 Strasbourg
The model makes it 45% Toulouse, 24% draw, 31% Strasbourg — fair odds of 2.22, 4.17 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Toulouse 2.07, Strasbourg 1.63.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Toulouse's rating is built from 40 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Strasbourg's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 678 matches.
Key facts
- Toulouse are 11th on 9 points from 7 games; Strasbourg are 14th on 7 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Toulouse are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Le Mans.
- Strasbourg are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Paris Saint Germain.
- Last 6 meetings: Strasbourg 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Toulouse vs Strasbourg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toulouse at 45% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Toulouse vs Strasbourg
Toulouse
Ligue 1
- W3-0away to Le Mans16 October 2026
- D2-2away to Monaco10 October 2026
- W3-2Le Havre19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lorient12 September 2026
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
Strasbourg
Ligue 1
- L1-3Paris Saint Germain17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nice11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Paris FC19 September 2026
- D1-1Monaco12 September 2026
- W6-2away to Estac Troyes6 September 2026
What these results say
- Toulouse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toulouse had three goals or more.
- Strasbourg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Strasbourg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Strasbourg.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Strasbourg vs Toulouse
Strasbourg and Toulouse have met 6 times in the records we hold, Strasbourg has won 3 of them to Toulouse's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Toulouse won the last one 2–1 on 3 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Toulouse | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 3 May 2026
Ligue 1Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse - 6 Dec 2025
Ligue 1Toulouse 1–0 Strasbourg - 16 Mar 2025
Ligue 1Strasbourg 2–1 Toulouse - 12 Jan 2025
Ligue 1Toulouse 1–2 Strasbourg - 7 Apr 2024
Ligue 1Toulouse 0–0 Strasbourg - 27 Aug 2023
Ligue 1Strasbourg 2–0 Toulouse
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | 1.10 | 1.19 |
| Toulouse | 1.03 | 1.07 |
Leading scorers: Toulouse and Strasbourg
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
Strasbourg
GoalsAssists
- Gessime Yassine22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Toulouse carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.82 for Strasbourg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Toulouse and 1.63 for Strasbourg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Toulouse rate 1.03 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Strasbourg rate 1.10 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Toulouse a 0.5% chance of the title and Strasbourg 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toulouse the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Toulouse against 1.63 for Strasbourg. Toulouse's attack/defence rating is 1.03/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.19 for Strasbourg.
How the model reaches 45% for Toulouse to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Toulouse to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Toulouse's ratings change nothing and Strasbourg's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage42%+5
- Toulouse's ratings42%±0
- Strasbourg's ratings45%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Toulouse at home · Strasbourg away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ToulouseStrasbourg
Toulouse are 11th after 7 Ligue 1 matches (between 7th and 17th so far); Strasbourg are 14th after 7 (between 4th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Toulouse 7, Strasbourg 7.
Toulouse score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Strasbourg have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Toulouse
- at Lens21 Nov · Ligue 1win 26%
- vs Rennes29 Nov · Ligue 1win 43%
- vs Paris Saint Germain5 Dec · Ligue 1win 23%
Strasbourg
- vs Stade Brestois 2921 Nov · Ligue 1win 46%
- at Le Havre28 Nov · Ligue 1win 42%
- vs Lorient5 Dec · Ligue 1win 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.