Toulouse
vs
Rennes
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Toulouse 2–1 Rennes
The model makes it 44% Toulouse, 23% draw, 33% Rennes — fair odds of 2.27, 4.35 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Toulouse 2.09, Rennes 1.76.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 74%, under 2.5: 26%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Toulouse's rating is built from 43 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Rennes's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Toulouse are 12th on 13 points from 10 games; Rennes are 8th on 16 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Toulouse have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Strasbourg.
- Rennes have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Lille.
- Last 6 meetings: Toulouse 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Rennes 1–0 Toulouse.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Toulouse vs Rennes
Has the model earned this number?
Toulouse at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Toulouse vs Rennes
Toulouse
Ligue 1
- W3-1Strasbourg6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Marseille1 November 2026
- D0-0Estac Troyes25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Le Mans16 October 2026
- D2-2away to Monaco10 October 2026
Rennes
Ligue 1
- L1-2Lille8 November 2026
- L2-5away to Nice30 October 2026
- W3-0Strasbourg25 October 2026
- L3-4away to Paris FC18 October 2026
- W4-1Auxerre11 October 2026
What these results say
- Rennes scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Rennes had three goals or more.
- Rennes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Rennes | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rennes vs Toulouse
Rennes and Toulouse have met 6 times in the records we hold, Toulouse has won 3 of them to Rennes's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Rennes won the last one 1–0 on 28 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Toulouse | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 28 Feb 2026
Ligue 1Rennes 1–0 Toulouse - 29 Oct 2025
Ligue 1Toulouse 2–2 Rennes - 3 May 2025
Ligue 1Toulouse 2–1 Rennes - 10 Nov 2024
Ligue 1Rennes 0–2 Toulouse - 13 Apr 2024
Ligue 1Rennes 1–2 Toulouse - 17 Dec 2023
Ligue 1Toulouse 0–0 Rennes
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Rennes' attack rates 28% above Toulouse's, and Toulouse concede 19% fewer than Rennes. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Toulouse and Rennes
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
Rennes
GoalsAssists
- E. Lepaul70
- B. Dia50
- S. Szymański41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rennes (8th, with Toulouse 12th), while our numbers lean to Toulouse. Toulouse rate 0.96 in attack and 1.04 in defence, Rennes 1.23 and 1.29 (lower is better in defence), so Toulouse have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Toulouse a 0.1% chance of the title and Rennes 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toulouse the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Toulouse against 1.76 for Rennes. Toulouse's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1.29 for Rennes.
How the model reaches 44% for Toulouse to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Toulouse to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Toulouse's ratings take away 2 points and Rennes's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level45%+2
- Toulouse's ratings43%−2
- Rennes's ratings44%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Toulouse at home · Rennes away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
ToulouseRennes
Toulouse are 12th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 7th and 17th so far); Rennes are 8th after 10 (between 1st and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Toulouse 10, Rennes 10.
Toulouse score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Rennes have let in 4 there.
Rennes score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Toulouse have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Toulouse
- vs Paris Saint Germain4 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
- at Auxerre11 Dec · Ligue 1win 42%
- vs Angers2 Jan · Ligue 1win 59%
- at Paris FC17 Jan · Ligue 1win 21%
Rennes
- vs Stade Brestois 296 Dec · Ligue 1win 45%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 50%
- vs Monaco13 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.