FSV Mainz 05
vs
Union Berlin
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Union Berlin
The model makes it 52% FSV Mainz 05, 24% draw, 24% Union Berlin — fair odds of 1.92, 4.17 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 2.01, Union Berlin 1.21.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
Edge to FSV Mainz 05: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FSV Mainz 05's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and Union Berlin's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- FSV Mainz 05 are 12th on 10 points from 9 games; Union Berlin are 16th on 7 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- FSV Mainz 05 are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bayern München.
- Union Berlin are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to SC Freiburg.
- Last 6 meetings: Union Berlin 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
Has the model earned this number?
FSV Mainz 05 at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga
- L1-2Bayern München7 November 2026
- L1-4away to SV Elversberg30 October 2026
- L2-3Werder Bremen24 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Schalke 0417 October 2026
- L3-4Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026
Union Berlin
Bundesliga
- L0-2away to SC Freiburg8 November 2026
- D1-11. FC Köln1 November 2026
- D1-1away to FC Augsburg24 October 2026
- D0-0Borussia Dortmund17 October 2026
- W1-0SV Elversberg10 October 2026
What these results say
- FSV Mainz 05 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FSV Mainz 05 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FSV Mainz 05 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Union Berlin had two goals or fewer.
- Union Berlin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FSV Mainz 05
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 8% today
Union Berlin
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 38% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin have met 6 times in the records we hold, Union Berlin has won 3 of them to FSV Mainz 05's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
Union Berlin won the last one 3–1 on 10 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| Union Berlin | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 3.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 10 May 2026
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin - 10 Jan 2026
BundesligaUnion Berlin 2–2 FSV Mainz 05 - 19 Jan 2025
BundesligaUnion Berlin 2–1 FSV Mainz 05 - 24 Aug 2024
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 1–1 Union Berlin - 7 Feb 2024
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 1–1 Union Berlin - 20 Aug 2023
BundesligaUnion Berlin 4–1 FSV Mainz 05
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, FSV Mainz 05's attack rates 44% above Union Berlin's, and Union Berlin concede 4% fewer than FSV Mainz 05. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 1.01 | 1.12 |
| Union Berlin | 0.70 | 1.08 |
Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz60
- A. Caci33
Union Berlin
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FSV Mainz 05 the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.21 for Union Berlin. FSV Mainz 05's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.08 for Union Berlin.
How the model reaches 52% for FSV Mainz 05 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for FSV Mainz 05 to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, FSV Mainz 05's ratings add 6 points and Union Berlin's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- FSV Mainz 05's ratings48%+6
- Union Berlin's ratings52%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FSV Mainz 05 at home · Union Berlin away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FSV Mainz 05Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05 are 12th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 4th and 10th so far); Union Berlin are 16th after 9 (between 6th and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: FSV Mainz 05 9, Union Berlin 9.
FSV Mainz 05 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Union Berlin have let in 2 there.
Union Berlin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); FSV Mainz 05 have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FSV Mainz 05
- at RB Leipzig5 Dec · Bundesligawin 16%
- vs SC Freiburg13 Dec · Bundesligawin 30%
- vs 1. FC Köln19 Dec · Bundesligawin 50%
- at Borussia Dortmund8 Jan · Bundesligawin 14%
Union Berlin
- vs Hamburger SV5 Dec · Bundesligawin 38%
- at VfB Stuttgart12 Dec · Bundesligawin 18%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim20 Dec · Bundesligawin 31%
- at Werder Bremen10 Jan · Bundesligawin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.