SC Paderborn 07
vs
FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SC Paderborn 07 1–0 FC Schalke 04
The model makes it 38% SC Paderborn 07, 35% draw, 27% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 2.63, 2.86 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: SC Paderborn 07 0.94, FC Schalke 04 0.72.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 23%, under 2.5: 77%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,325 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. SC Paderborn 07's rating is built from 11 Bundesliga matches and FC Schalke 04's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- SC Paderborn 07 are 13th on 10 points from 9 games; FC Schalke 04 are 17th on 6 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- SC Paderborn 07 are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Eintracht Frankfurt.
- FC Schalke 04 have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to 1899 Hoffenheim.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Schalke 04 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended SC Paderborn 07 2–3 FC Schalke 04.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04
Has the model earned this number?
SC Paderborn 07 at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04
SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga
- D2-2Eintracht Frankfurt7 November 2026
- D0-0away to Borussia Mönchengladbach31 October 2026
- W1-0Hamburger SV24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Werder Bremen17 October 2026
- L0-2VfB Stuttgart10 October 2026
FC Schalke 04
Bundesliga
- L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim8 November 2026
- L0-2RB Leipzig31 October 2026
- D0-0away to 1. FC Köln24 October 2026
- L0-1FSV Mainz 0517 October 2026
- L1-2away to SC Freiburg11 October 2026
What these results say
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Schalke 04 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Schalke 04 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SC Paderborn 07
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 15% today
FC Schalke 04
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 34% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Schalke 04 vs SC Paderborn 07
FC Schalke 04 and SC Paderborn 07 have met 6 times in the records we hold, FC Schalke 04 has won 3 of them to SC Paderborn 07's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
FC Schalke 04 won the last one 3–2 on 26 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 26 goals, an average of 4.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Apr 2026
2. BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 2–3 FC Schalke 04 - 28 Nov 2025
2. BundesligaFC Schalke 04 2–1 SC Paderborn 07 - 2 May 2025
2. BundesligaFC Schalke 04 0–2 SC Paderborn 07 - 6 Dec 2024
2. BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 2–4 FC Schalke 04 - 9 Mar 2024
2. BundesligaFC Schalke 04 3–3 SC Paderborn 07 - 29 Sep 2023
2. BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 3–1 FC Schalke 04
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, SC Paderborn 07's attack rates 15% above FC Schalke 04's, and FC Schalke 04 concede 5% fewer than SC Paderborn 07. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 0.55 | 0.81 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 0.63 | 0.85 |
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Paderborn 07 the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 against 0.72 for FC Schalke 04. SC Paderborn 07's attack/defence rating is 0.63/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/0.81 for FC Schalke 04.
How the model reaches 38% for SC Paderborn 07 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for SC Paderborn 07 to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 7 points, SC Paderborn 07's ratings add 1 point and FC Schalke 04's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level36%−7
- SC Paderborn 07's ratings37%+1
- FC Schalke 04's ratings38%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
SC Paderborn 07 at home · FC Schalke 04 away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SC Paderborn 07FC Schalke 04
SC Paderborn 07 are 13th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 15th so far); FC Schalke 04 are 17th after 9 (between 7th and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SC Paderborn 07 9, FC Schalke 04 9.
SC Paderborn 07 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); FC Schalke 04 have let in 3 there.
FC Schalke 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); SC Paderborn 07 have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SC Paderborn 07
- at Bayern München4 Dec · Bundesligawin 9%
- vs SV Elversberg12 Dec · Bundesligawin 33%
- at FC Augsburg19 Dec · Bundesligawin 26%
- vs RB Leipzig9 Jan · Bundesligawin 21%
FC Schalke 04
- vs Borussia Dortmund6 Dec · Bundesligawin 16%
- at Hamburger SV11 Dec · Bundesligawin 29%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach20 Dec · Bundesligawin 39%
- at Eintracht Frankfurt9 Jan · Bundesligawin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.