Estoril
vs
Maritimo
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Estoril 2–1 Maritimo
The model makes it 46% Estoril, 26% draw, 28% Maritimo — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Estoril 1.70, Maritimo 1.21.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,224 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Estoril's rating is built from 42 Primeira Liga matches and Maritimo's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Estoril are bottom on 2 points from 8 games; Maritimo are 13th on 8 points from 9 games — Primeira Liga.
- Estoril have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Academico Viseu.
- Maritimo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Vitória SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Estoril 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 May 2023, ended Estoril 3–1 Maritimo.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Estoril vs Maritimo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Estoril at 46% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Estoril vs Maritimo
Estoril
Primeira Liga
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu10 October 2026
- L1-2Casa Pia20 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga14 September 2026
- D0-0Arouca7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Benfica31 August 2026
Maritimo
Primeira Liga
- L0-5away to Vitória SC23 October 2026
- L1-2FC Porto10 October 2026
- D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026
- L0-3Benfica5 September 2026
What these results say
- Estoril did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Estoril conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Maritimo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Maritimo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Maritimo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 |
| 13 | Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Estoril vs Maritimo
Estoril and Maritimo have met 6 times in the records we hold, Estoril has won 3 of them to Maritimo's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Estoril won the last one 3–1 on 27 May 2023.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 |
| Maritimo | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 27 May 2023
Primeira LigaEstoril 3–1 Maritimo - 22 Jan 2023
Primeira LigaMaritimo 1–0 Estoril - 5 Feb 2022
Primeira LigaMaritimo 0–0 Estoril - 27 Aug 2021
Primeira LigaEstoril 2–1 Maritimo - 27 Jan 2021
Taça de PortugalMaritimo 1–3 Estoril - 7 Apr 2018
Primeira LigaEstoril 1–1 Maritimo
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Estoril carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.53 for Maritimo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Estoril and 1.21 for Maritimo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estoril rate 0.75 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maritimo rate 0.79 and 1.50.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Maritimo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estoril the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Estoril against 1.21 for Maritimo. Estoril's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.5 for Maritimo.
How the model reaches 46% for Estoril to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Estoril to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Estoril's ratings take away 13 points and Maritimo's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Estoril's ratings28%−13
- Maritimo's ratings46%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Estoril at home · Maritimo away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Estoril 8, Maritimo 9.
Estoril score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Maritimo have let in 1 there.
Maritimo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Estoril have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Estoril
- at GIL Vicente29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 23%
- vs Vitória SC6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 33%
- vs Santa Clara13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 27%
Maritimo
- vs Nacional27 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 39%
- at Sporting CP6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 6%
- vs Rio Ave13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 40%
- at Estrela20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.