Bournemouth
vs
Nottingham Forest
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Bournemouth 1–0 Nottingham Forest
The model makes it 46% Bournemouth, 27% draw, 27% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.63, Nottingham Forest 1.14.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Bournemouth's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Nottingham Forest's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Bournemouth are 7th on 15 points from 10 games; Nottingham Forest are 16th on 9 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Ipswich.
- Nottingham Forest have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Manchester City.
- Last 6 meetings: Bournemouth 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Nottingham Forest 1–1 Bournemouth.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
Has the model earned this number?
Bournemouth at 46%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Premier League
- W2-1away to Ipswich8 November 2026
- W2-0Leeds31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Manchester United25 October 2026
- W2-0Sunderland18 October 2026
- L1-5away to Chelsea10 October 2026
Nottingham Forest
Premier League
- W3-1Manchester City7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Brentford31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ipswich23 October 2026
- L0-1Arsenal18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Crystal Palace11 October 2026
What these results say
- Bournemouth scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bournemouth
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
Nottingham Forest
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest have met 6 times in the records we hold, Bournemouth has won 3 of them to Nottingham Forest's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Nottingham Forest on 24 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 5 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 May 2026
Premier LeagueNottingham Forest 1–1 Bournemouth - 26 Oct 2025
Premier LeagueBournemouth 2–0 Nottingham Forest - 25 Jan 2025
Premier LeagueBournemouth 5–0 Nottingham Forest - 17 Aug 2024
Premier LeagueNottingham Forest 1–1 Bournemouth - 4 Feb 2024
Premier LeagueBournemouth 1–1 Nottingham Forest - 23 Dec 2023
Premier LeagueNottingham Forest 2–3 Bournemouth
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bournemouth's attack rates 26% above Nottingham Forest's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.17 | 0.89 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.93 | 0.87 |
Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- Evanilson54
- M. Tavernier50
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bournemouth a 0.2% chance of the title and Nottingham Forest 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Bournemouth's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Bournemouth win46%▼ −2
- Draw27%=
- Nottingham Forest win27%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bournemouth the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Bournemouth against 1.14 for Nottingham Forest. Bournemouth's attack/defence rating is 1.17/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/0.87 for Nottingham Forest.
How the model reaches 46% for Bournemouth to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Bournemouth to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Bournemouth's ratings add 3 points and Nottingham Forest's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Bournemouth's ratings43%+3
- Nottingham Forest's ratings46%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bournemouth at home · Nottingham Forest away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BournemouthNottingham Forest
Bournemouth are 7th after 10 Premier League matches (between 6th and 17th so far); Nottingham Forest are 16th after 10 (between 10th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bournemouth 10, Nottingham Forest 10.
Bournemouth score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Nottingham Forest have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bournemouth
- at Celta Vigo26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 37%
- at Fulham29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Brighton2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Hull City5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- vs Plzen10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
Nottingham Forest
- vs Chelsea27 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Hull City2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Brighton5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- at Sunderland13 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Everton20 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.