The model on 12 October: 31 out of 54
Of the 54 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Monday 12 October 2026, it called the result of 31 (57%). It named the exact scoreline 8 times. Across all 3,654 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 48%.
By competition
- AFC Champions League Elite: 4 of 6
- Premier League (Egypt): 3 of 4
- Segunda División: 2 of 4
- Liga Profesional Argentina: 2 of 3
- Serie B: 2 of 3
- Allsvenskan: 2 of 2
- Division Profesional - Clausura: 2 of 2
- Liga I: 0 of 2
- 24 other competitions: 14 of 28
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- PAOK 1-3 Kalamata: the model had PAOK at 72%.
- Tractor Sazi 0-0 Al Shamal: the model had Tractor Sazi at 65%.
- Pakhtakor 1-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC: the model had Al-Qadisiyah FC at 64%.
Exact scorelines
- AEK Larnaca 1-0 Omonia Aradippou: the exact score it named, with AEK Larnaca at 61%.
- Criciuma 1-0 America Mineiro: the exact score it named, with Criciuma at 60%.
- Benfica B 1-0 Felgueiras 1932: the exact score it named, with Benfica B at 51%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.