The model on 10 October: 116 out of 226
Of the 226 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Saturday 10 October 2026, it called the result of 116 (51%). It named the exact scoreline 28 times. Across all 3,428 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 48%.
By competition
- League One: 8 of 12
- League Two: 5 of 12
- Championship (England): 6 of 10
- Major League Soccer: 6 of 9
- 3. Liga: 3 of 6
- Bundesliga (Germany): 3 of 6
- Premier League (England): 4 of 6
- Serie B: 3 of 6
- 53 other competitions: 78 of 159
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Maccabi Tel Aviv 0-0 Bnei Sakhnin: the model had Maccabi Tel Aviv at 76%.
- Arbroath 1-2 Morton: the model had Arbroath at 73%.
- Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham: the model had Manchester United at 64%.
Exact scorelines
- Raith Rovers 2-0 Queen's Park: the exact score it named, with Raith Rovers at 63%.
- Philadelphia Union 2-1 Real Salt Lake: the exact score it named, with Philadelphia Union at 62%.
- Independiente del Valle 2-1 Aucas: the exact score it named, with Independiente del Valle at 62%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.