The model on 28 September: 7 out of 12
Of the 12 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Monday 28 September 2026, it called the result of 7 (58%). It named the exact scoreline 2 times. Across all 2,921 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- UEFA Nations League: 3 of 8
- Liga MX: 2 of 2
- Primera A: 1 of 1
- Segunda División: 1 of 1
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Northern Ireland 0-0 Hungary: the model had Hungary at 43%.
- Romania 2-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina: the model had Romania at 41%.
- Sweden 3-1 Poland: the model had Poland at 39%.
Exact scorelines
- Leon 2-1 FC Juarez: the exact score it named, with Leon at 50%.
- Belgium 0-1 France: the exact score it named, with France at 37%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.