The model on 26 September: 10 out of 35
Of the 35 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Saturday 26 September 2026, it called the result of 10 (29%). It named the exact scoreline 2 times. Across all 2,869 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- League Two: 2 of 10
- UEFA Nations League: 5 of 10
- League One: 1 of 4
- Segunda División: 0 of 4
- Botola Pro: 1 of 3
- Liga MX: 1 of 2
- Primera A: 0 of 2
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Cambridge United 1-1 AFC Wimbledon: the model had Cambridge United at 49%.
- Plymouth 0-1 Burton Albion: the model had Plymouth at 48%.
- Tenerife 1-1 Cadiz: the model had Tenerife at 48%.
Exact scorelines
- Slovakia 2-0 Moldova: the exact score it named, with Slovakia at 57%.
- Czechia 1-2 Croatia: the exact score it named, with Croatia at 47%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.