The model on 18 September: 18 out of 40
Of the 40 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Friday 18 September 2026, it called the result of 18 (45%). It named the exact scoreline 5 times. Across all 2,536 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- Ligue 2: 1 of 6
- Premier Division: 2 of 4
- Veikkausliiga: 1 of 4
- 2. Bundesliga: 1 of 2
- Ekstraklasa: 1 of 2
- Liga I: 2 of 2
- Bundesliga (Austria): 1 of 1
- Bundesliga (Germany): 1 of 1
- 18 other competitions: 8 of 18
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Lahti 1-1 FF Jaro: the model had Lahti at 52%.
- Lyngby 0-4 Silkeborg: the model had Lyngby at 47%.
- Slavia Sofia 1-2 CSKA 1948: the model had Slavia Sofia at 47%.
Exact scorelines
- Wisla Krakow 2-1 Slask Wroclaw: the exact score it named, with Wisla Krakow at 48%.
- Uta Arad 1-0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe: the exact score it named, with Uta Arad at 48%.
- Bristol City 1-0 Watford: the exact score it named, with Bristol City at 41%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.