Zalaegerszegi TE
vs
Puskas Academy
NB I prediction
The model makes it 26% Zalaegerszegi TE, 29% draw, 45% Puskas Academy — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Zalaegerszegi TE 0.97, Puskas Academy 1.34.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Zalaegerszegi TE
- L0-1Ferencvarosi TC17 August 2026
- L0-5away to Vasas8 August 2026
- W5-2Paks3 August 2026
- L0-3away to MTK Budapest27 July 2026
Puskas Academy
- W3-2Paks16 August 2026
- W3-2away to MTK Budapest7 August 2026
- L0-2Kisvarda FC31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Debreceni VSC26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 1 | Puskas Academy | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Zalaegerszegi TE vs Puskas Academy
- 1 May 2026Zalaegerszegi TE 1–3 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 8 February 2026Puskas Academy 0–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 19 October 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 0–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 16 March 2025Puskas Academy 2–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
- 9 November 2024Zalaegerszegi TE 4–2 Puskas AcademyNB I
- 4 August 2024Puskas Academy 2–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
Leading scorers
Zalaegerszegi TE
- Calderón2 goals
Puskas Academy
- A. Németh2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Zalaegerszegi TE carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.4 for Puskas Academy. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Zalaegerszegi TE L-W-L-L; Puskas Academy W-L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for Zalaegerszegi TE and 1.34 for Puskas Academy. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zalaegerszegi TE rate 0.36 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puskas Academy rate 0.57 and 1.43.
That points to 41% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puskas Academy the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Zalaegerszegi TE against 1.34 for Puskas Academy. Zalaegerszegi TE's attack/defence rating is 0.36/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.43 for Puskas Academy.