Regular Season - 7 · 5 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Vasas vs Nyiregyhaza NB I prediction

Illovszky Rudolf Stadion, Budapest

The model makes it 81% Vasas, 14% draw, 5% Nyiregyhaza — fair odds of 1.23, 7.14 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (17%).

Expected goals: Vasas 2.39, Nyiregyhaza 0.44.

Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

33%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 17%1-0 14%3-0 13%

Form going into this match

Vasas

  • W2-1away to Budapest Honved14 August 2026
  • W5-0Zalaegerszegi TE8 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Ferencvarosi TC2 August 2026
  • D2-2Gyori ETO FC26 July 2026

Nyiregyhaza

  • W2-1Kisvarda FC15 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Debreceni VSC9 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Gyori ETO FC2 August 2026
  • W2-1Ujpest24 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Vasas422093+68
5Nyiregyhaza420247-36

Where the two sides stand. Full tables

Head-to-head: Vasas vs Nyiregyhaza

  • 14 September 2024Vasas 1–1 NyiregyhazaMagyar Kupa
  • 20 April 2024Nyiregyhaza 3–1 VasasNB II
  • 22 October 2023Vasas 3–0 NyiregyhazaNB II
  • 18 October 2022Nyiregyhaza 1–2 VasasMagyar Kupa
  • 20 March 2022Nyiregyhaza 0–1 VasasNB II
  • 29 September 2021Vasas 2–0 NyiregyhazaNB II

A clear gap in the ratings

Vasas carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.11 for Nyiregyhaza. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

Recent form (most recent last): Vasas D-D-W-W; Nyiregyhaza W-L-L-W.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 2.39 goals for Vasas and 0.44 for Nyiregyhaza. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Vasas rate 0.74 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nyiregyhaza rate 0.37 and 1.71.

That points to 54% for over two and a half goals and 33% for both teams to score.

The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (17%), 1-0 (14%), 3-0 (13%).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Vasas the highest probability at 81%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Vasas against 0.44 for Nyiregyhaza. Vasas's attack/defence rating is 0.74/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/1.71 for Nyiregyhaza.