Ferencvarosi TC
vs
Ujpest
NB I prediction
The model makes it 60% Ferencvarosi TC, 26% draw, 14% Ujpest — fair odds of 1.67, 3.85 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Ferencvarosi TC 1.62, Ujpest 0.65.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ferencvarosi TC
- W1-0away to Zalaegerszegi TE17 August 2026
- D0-0Vasas2 August 2026
- L2-4away to Paks26 July 2026
Ujpest
- L0-2away to Paks21 August 2026
- D1-1MTK Budapest15 August 2026
- W4-2away to Kisvarda FC8 August 2026
- W4-2Debreceni VSC2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Nyiregyhaza24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Ujpest | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Ferencvarosi TC vs Ujpest
- 3 May 2026Ujpest 0–5 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 7 February 2026Ferencvarosi TC 3–0 UjpestNB I
- 19 October 2025Ujpest 1–1 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
- 6 April 2025Ferencvarosi TC 2–0 UjpestNB I
- 2 April 2025Ferencvarosi TC 3–1 UjpestMagyar Kupa
- 1 December 2024Ujpest 0–0 Ferencvarosi TCNB I
Leading scorers
Ferencvarosi TC
No league goals recorded yet.
Ujpest
- E. Amenyido2 goals3 assists
- K. Horváth2 goals1 assists
- A. Matko2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ferencvarosi TC carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.26 for Ujpest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Ferencvarosi TC L-D-W; Ujpest L-W-W-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Ferencvarosi TC and 0.65 for Ujpest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.48 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ujpest rate 0.55 and 1.79.
That points to 40% for over two and a half goals and 39% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (16%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ujpest, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ferencvarosi TC the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC against 0.65 for Ujpest. Ferencvarosi TC's attack/defence rating is 0.48/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.79 for Ujpest.