Universitatea Craiova
vs
Universitatea Cluj
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 52% Universitatea Craiova, 27% draw, 21% Universitatea Cluj — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Universitatea Craiova 1.53, Universitatea Cluj 0.90.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Universitatea Craiova
- D1-1away to Oțelul16 August 2026
- L0-1Arges Pitesti9 August 2026
- W4-0Petrolul Ploiesti1 August 2026
- L1-5away to Dinamo Bucuresti25 July 2026
- W4-0Uta Arad18 July 2026
Universitatea Cluj
- W2-1Uta Arad17 August 2026
- W2-1FC Botosani3 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe26 July 2026
- W2-1Farul Constanta19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Universitatea Craiova | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 7 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj
- 12 July 2026Universitatea Craiova 1–1 Universitatea ClujSupercupa
- 17 May 2026Universitatea Craiova 5–0 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 13 May 2026Universitatea Cluj 0–0 Universitatea CraiovaCupa României
- 13 April 2026Universitatea Cluj 4–0 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 1 December 2025Universitatea Cluj 0–0 Universitatea CraiovaLiga I
- 28 July 2025Universitatea Craiova 2–1 Universitatea ClujLiga I
Leading scorers
Universitatea Craiova
No league goals recorded yet.
Universitatea Cluj
- A. Aliev4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Universitatea Craiova carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.26 for Universitatea Cluj. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Universitatea Craiova W-L-W-L-D; Universitatea Cluj W-L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Universitatea Craiova and 0.90 for Universitatea Cluj. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Universitatea Craiova rate 0.48 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Universitatea Cluj rate 0.52 and 1.69.
That points to 44% for over two and a half goals and 47% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Universitatea Cluj, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Craiova the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Universitatea Craiova against 0.9 for Universitatea Cluj. Universitatea Craiova's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.69 for Universitatea Cluj.