Oțelul
vs
Rapid
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 22% Oțelul, 22% draw, 56% Rapid — fair odds of 4.55, 4.55 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Oțelul 1.26, Rapid 2.08.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Oțelul
- D1-1Universitatea Craiova16 August 2026
- L0-1away to Petrolul Ploiesti9 August 2026
- D1-1Dinamo Bucuresti31 July 2026
- D2-2away to Uta Arad24 July 2026
- W2-1CFR 1907 Cluj18 July 2026
Rapid
- W2-0away to Petrolul Ploiesti21 August 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Bucuresti15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Uta Arad7 August 2026
- W3-1CFR 1907 Cluj2 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Botosani27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Oțelul | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Rapid | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Rapid
- 13 December 2025Rapid 0–2 OțelulLiga I
- 11 August 2025Oțelul 1–1 RapidLiga I
- 8 February 2025Oțelul 1–1 RapidLiga I
- 28 September 2024Rapid 0–0 OțelulLiga I
- 3 February 2024Rapid 2–1 OțelulLiga I
- 17 September 2023Oțelul 0–0 RapidLiga I
Leading scorers
Oțelul
- Patrick3 goals
Rapid
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Oțelul carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.75 for Rapid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Oțelul W-D-D-L-D; Rapid D-W-D-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Oțelul and 2.08 for Rapid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oțelul rate 0.74 in attack and 2.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rapid rate 0.69 and 0.90.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rapid the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Oțelul against 2.08 for Rapid. Oțelul's attack/defence rating is 0.74/2.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/0.9 for Rapid.