Petrolul Ploiesti
vs
Corvinul Hunedoara
Liga I prediction
The model makes it 12% Petrolul Ploiesti, 25% draw, 63% Corvinul Hunedoara — fair odds of 8.33, 4.00 and 1.59. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (17%).
Expected goals: Petrolul Ploiesti 0.59, Corvinul Hunedoara 1.65.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Petrolul Ploiesti
- L0-2Rapid21 August 2026
- W2-1away to FC Voluntari14 August 2026
- W1-0Oțelul9 August 2026
- L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova1 August 2026
- L0-1away to Arges Pitesti24 July 2026
Corvinul Hunedoara
- W3-0CFR 1907 Cluj16 August 2026
- D0-0away to FC Botosani10 August 2026
- D1-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe2 August 2026
- L0-2away to Farul Constanta25 July 2026
- W3-0Csikszereda20 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Petrolul Ploiesti carry a model rating of 6.02 against 6.71 for Corvinul Hunedoara. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Petrolul Ploiesti L-L-W-W-L; Corvinul Hunedoara W-L-D-D-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.59 goals for Petrolul Ploiesti and 1.65 for Corvinul Hunedoara. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Petrolul Ploiesti rate 0.35 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Corvinul Hunedoara rate 0.62 and 0.89.
That points to 39% for over two and a half goals and 36% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (17%), 0-2 (15%), 0-0 (11%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Petrolul Ploiesti, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Corvinul Hunedoara the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Petrolul Ploiesti against 1.65 for Corvinul Hunedoara. Petrolul Ploiesti's attack/defence rating is 0.35/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/0.89 for Corvinul Hunedoara.