Union Santa Fe
vs
Instituto Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 26% Union Santa Fe, 25% draw, 49% Instituto Cordoba — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Union Santa Fe 1.19, Instituto Cordoba 1.72.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Union Santa Fe
- W3-1away to Aldosivi21 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Lorenzo15 August 2026
- L1-2Central Cordoba de Santiago11 August 2026
- W2-1Lanus6 August 2026
- L0-2away to Gimnasia Mendoza1 August 2026
Instituto Cordoba
- D0-0away to Atletico Tucuman22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago16 August 2026
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Lanus3 August 2026
- W2-1Platense30 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Union Santa Fe
- C. Tarragona11 goals1 assists
Instituto Cordoba
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Union Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.98 for Instituto Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Union Santa Fe L-W-L-L-W; Instituto Cordoba W-W-W-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Union Santa Fe and 1.72 for Instituto Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union Santa Fe rate 0.75 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Instituto Cordoba rate 1.09 and 0.84.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Union Santa Fe, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union Santa Fe a 0.2% chance of the title and Instituto Cordoba 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Instituto Cordoba the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Union Santa Fe against 1.72 for Instituto Cordoba. Union Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.84 for Instituto Cordoba.