Racing Club
vs
Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 46% Racing Club, 29% draw, 25% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Racing Club 1.36, Atletico Tucuman 0.92.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Leading scorers
Racing Club
No league goals recorded yet.
Atletico Tucuman
- L. Díaz7 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Racing Club carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.57 for Atletico Tucuman. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Racing Club W-D-L-L-L; Atletico Tucuman W-D-L-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Racing Club and 0.92 for Atletico Tucuman. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Racing Club rate 0.71 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Tucuman rate 0.52 and 1.01.
That points to 40% for over two and a half goals and 45% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Racing Club the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Racing Club against 0.92 for Atletico Tucuman. Racing Club's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.01 for Atletico Tucuman.