San Lorenzo
vs
Talleres Cordoba
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 51% San Lorenzo, 24% draw, 25% Talleres Cordoba — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: San Lorenzo 1.84, Talleres Cordoba 1.24.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
San Lorenzo
- D0-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto21 August 2026
- W1-0Union Santa Fe15 August 2026
- L0-2Huracan9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Central Cordoba de Santiago4 August 2026
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza28 July 2026
Talleres Cordoba
- L1-3away to Gimnasia Mendoza18 August 2026
- L0-3Lanus12 August 2026
- W4-0away to Platense3 August 2026
- L1-3Velez Sarsfield30 July 2026
- L0-1away to Newell's Old Boys25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 4 | Talleres Cordoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
San Lorenzo carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.59 for Talleres Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): San Lorenzo W-L-L-W-D; Talleres Cordoba L-L-W-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for San Lorenzo and 1.24 for Talleres Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
San Lorenzo rate 0.64 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Talleres Cordoba rate 0.88 and 1.52.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Talleres Cordoba, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives San Lorenzo a 0.2% chance of the title and Talleres Cordoba 4.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 542 correct results out of 1143 settled predictions (47%), with 104 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives San Lorenzo the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for San Lorenzo against 1.24 for Talleres Cordoba. San Lorenzo's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.52 for Talleres Cordoba.