Switzerland
vs
FYR Macedonia
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Switzerland 2–0 FYR Macedonia
The model makes it 65% Switzerland, 23% draw, 12% FYR Macedonia — fair odds of 1.54, 4.35 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Switzerland 2.41, FYR Macedonia 0.49.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Switzerland are top on 6 points from 2 games; FYR Macedonia are bottom on 0 points from 2 games — UEFA Nations League, League B.
- Switzerland have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win away to Scotland.
- FYR Macedonia have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Slovenia.
All Nations League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Switzerland at 65% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia
Switzerland
- W3-0away to Scotland29 September 2026
- W3-0away to FYR Macedonia26 September 2026
FYR Macedonia
- L0-2away to Slovenia29 September 2026
- L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
| 4 | FYR Macedonia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia
- 26 September 2026FYR Macedonia 0–3 SwitzerlandUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Switzerland and FYR Macedonia
Switzerland
- Z. Amdouni3 goals1 assist
FYR Macedonia
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Switzerland carry a model rating of 7.26 against 6.53 for FYR Macedonia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.41 goals for Switzerland and 0.49 for FYR Macedonia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Switzerland rate 1.55 in attack and 0.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FYR Macedonia rate 0.58 and 1.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Switzerland the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Switzerland against 0.49 for FYR Macedonia. Switzerland's attack/defence rating is 1.55/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.15 for FYR Macedonia.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Switzerland
- at Slovenia13 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 46%
- vs Scotland16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 55%
FYR Macedonia
- at Scotland13 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 23%
- vs Slovenia16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.