Stoke City
vs
Bristol City
Championship prediction
Our model says: Stoke City 1–0 Bristol City
The model makes it 43% Stoke City, 28% draw, 29% Bristol City — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Stoke City 1.50, Bristol City 1.12.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Stoke City are 6th on 16 points from 10 games; Bristol City are 11th on 14 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Stoke City have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Middlesbrough.
- Bristol City have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Blackburn.
- Last 6 meetings: Stoke City 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Bristol City 2–0 Stoke City.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stoke City vs Bristol City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stoke City at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stoke City vs Bristol City
Stoke City
- L2-3Middlesbrough13 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bolton10 October 2026
- W2-1Sheffield Utd19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Watford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cardiff8 September 2026
Bristol City
- L0-1Blackburn13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Charlton10 October 2026
- W1-0Watford18 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln15 September 2026
- L1-4away to Southampton12 September 2026
What these results say
- Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Stoke City.
- Bristol City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bristol City had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 16 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stoke City
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Bristol City
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Stoke City vs Bristol City
- 2 May 2026Bristol City 2–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 1 November 2025Stoke City 5–1 Bristol CityChampionship
- 12 February 2025Bristol City 2–0 Stoke CityChampionship
- 22 October 2024Stoke City 2–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 4 May 2024Stoke City 4–0 Bristol CityChampionship
- 30 September 2023Bristol City 2–3 Stoke CityChampionship
Leading scorers: Stoke City and Bristol City
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- E. Galbraith32
Bristol City
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stoke City carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.49 for Bristol City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Stoke City and 1.12 for Bristol City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stoke City rate 0.73 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bristol City rate 0.66 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stoke City a 0.5% chance of the title and Bristol City 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stoke City the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stoke City against 1.12 for Bristol City. Stoke City's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.36 for Bristol City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stoke City at home · Bristol City away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Stoke CityBristol City
Stoke City are 6th after 10 Championship matches (between 3rd and 23rd so far); Bristol City are 11th after 10 (between 3rd and 23rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Stoke City 10, Bristol City 10.
Bristol City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Stoke City have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stoke City
- vs Preston31 Oct · Championshipwin 53%
- at Blackburn3 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- at Portsmouth7 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Birmingham21 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
Bristol City
- at Bolton31 Oct · Championshipwin 30%
- vs Wolves4 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Norwich7 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- at Middlesbrough21 Nov · Championshipwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.