Stade Brestois 29
vs
Nice
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Stade Brestois 29 2–1 Nice
The model makes it 48% Stade Brestois 29, 26% draw, 26% Nice — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Stade Brestois 29 1.74, Nice 1.12.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Stade Brestois 29 are 7th on 8 points from 6 games; Nice are 9th on 8 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Stade Brestois 29 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Angers.
- Nice have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Strasbourg.
- Last 6 meetings: Nice 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Nice 2–2 Stade Brestois 29.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stade Brestois 29 at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice
Stade Brestois 29
- W5-1Angers10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Auxerre20 September 2026
- L0-1Paris Saint Germain13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Le Havre5 September 2026
- D2-2Toulouse29 August 2026
Nice
- W2-1Strasbourg11 October 2026
- W2-1Lille20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Auxerre12 September 2026
- D1-1Le Mans5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Paris FC30 August 2026
What these results say
- Stade Brestois 29 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stade Brestois 29 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Stade Brestois 29 had three goals or more.
- Nice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stade Brestois 29
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
Nice
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice
- 1 February 2026Nice 2–2 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 20 September 2025Stade Brestois 29 4–1 NiceLigue 1
- 17 May 2025Nice 6–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
- 2 November 2024Stade Brestois 29 0–1 NiceLigue 1
- 4 February 2024Stade Brestois 29 0–0 NiceLigue 1
- 1 October 2023Nice 0–0 Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
Leading scorers: Stade Brestois 29 and Nice
Stade Brestois 29
GoalsAssists
- K. Doumbia41
- P. Mboup21
- L. Ajorque21
Nice
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stade Brestois 29 carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.67 for Nice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.12 for Nice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stade Brestois 29 rate 0.98 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nice rate 0.71 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stade Brestois 29 a 0.1% chance of the title and Nice 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Brestois 29 the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.12 for Nice. Stade Brestois 29's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.05 for Nice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stade Brestois 29 at home · Nice away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Stade Brestois 29Nice
Stade Brestois 29 are 6th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 4th and 11th so far); Nice are 9th after 6 (between 6th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Stade Brestois 29 6, Nice 6.
Stade Brestois 29 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Nice have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stade Brestois 29
- at Lorient31 Oct · Ligue 1win 30%
- vs Lyon8 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- at Strasbourg21 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
- vs Paris FC27 Nov · Ligue 1win 29%
Nice
- vs Rennes31 Oct · Ligue 1win 32%
- at Angers8 Nov · Ligue 1win 34%
- vs Paris Saint Germain21 Nov · Ligue 1win 17%
- vs Estac Troyes28 Nov · Ligue 1win 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.